Weekly Predictor: Who wins in Week 11?

Jamie Nye

CFL.ca

@jamienye

After a perfect 4-0 week last week, you’d think I’d feel a lot more confident making predictions going forward.

But after doing this for so many years, you realize that right when you start to think you have the teams figured out, something changes. An injury can swing momentum in the wrong direction, a player can start to find his stride or a team that’s been inconsistent can begin to establish its identity and get hot.

This week provides a bunch of different matchups that could make you second-guess yourself. Sure, Calgary has looked stronger, but after a loss in Toronto and a win by the BC Lions, will Nathan Rourke and company finally start to become the strong team so many, myself included, predicted they would be in the preseason?

After back-to-back losses, are the Elks starting to sag at the worst time of the season, or do you just shrug it off because those losses came against Saskatchewan and Montreal?

I gather Hamilton even surprised a lot of people by hanging in right to the end on the road, with Harrison Frost making his first start out West against BC.

So I’ll take another crack at extending my lead over the other writers here at CFL.ca.

BC AT CALGARY

Thursday, August 13
9:00 p.m. ET
TSN/RDS2/CBSSN/CFL+

Calgary had a tough game to finish its three-game road streak. With the number of turnovers Calgary created, we were all surprised to see them lose. I did pick against Calgary last week, but I never thought they’d finish plus-three in the turnover ratio.

What I did see was a defence really starting to gel. It forced Chad Kelly into some bad decisions, but Vernon Adams Jr. and the offence couldn’t capitalize. Now the Stamps return home and get the BC Lions on a short week.

The last time these two teams played, Vernon Adams Jr. had a massive game in Kelowna, as BC didn’t have an answer for the Stampeders’ offence. Nathan Rourke didn’t have a poor game by any means, but it felt like every time Calgary touched the ball, it put points on the board.

Can the Lions get their revenge?

BC’s defence has improved over the last four games compared to the first four, although some of those games came against backup quarterbacks. I just think the Lions are trending upward, and Rourke could benefit from the shorter week by carrying over the rhythm he established last time out. I also love Jevon Cottoy returning and the emergence of a more rigorous ground game.

PICK: BC

OTTAWA AT WINNIPEG

Friday, August 14
8:30 p.m. ET
TSN/RDS2/CFL+

If Dru Brown were starting, I would have picked Ottawa. The REDBLACKS nearly beat the Bombers the last time they met before suffering an overtime heartbreak.

However, Zach Collaros is on track to return after practicing with the first-team offence. Although it’s not like the Bombers were clicking with Collaros to start the season, you know he’s not going to make as many mistakes as Brown has been making this season.

The REDBLACKS are again making changes, with a few more veterans released ahead of this week. They’re also making back-to-back trips West, first to Regina and now Winnipeg, which is never ideal for recovery.

The Bombers are coming off a bye week. We’ll see what they’ve been working on, as I’m sure the coordinators have been identifying the adjustments necessary for the team to look much more formidable in the back half of the season.

I’m thinking Brady Oliveira is ready to take control, and a strong running game can demoralize even the best opponents.

The REDBLACKS did hang in for three quarters against a banged-up Riders team, but eventually were unable to prevent the loss.

PICK: WINNIPEG

TORONTO AT EDMONTON

Saturday, August 15
3:00 p.m. ET
TSN/CTV/CRAVE/CFL+

After returning home to BMO Field in Week 10, the Argos head west in Week 11. As mentioned previously, the Argos surprised us by winning a game in which they coughed up the ball five times.

They’re not going to be so lucky against the Elks.

The biggest concern I have with Edmonton is that it has spent three straight weeks taking on the top two teams in the league. How battered are the Elks?

Teams continue to load up the box to contain Justin Rankin, and the Elks have struggled to show that they can consistently move the ball downfield without big plays from their top playmaker.

I imagine the Elks are trying to throw more wrinkles at teams and hoping for a breakthrough along the ground. Fajardo needed to throw for 500 yards to earn their lone win during this three-game stretch.

Toronto has won back-to-back games, although those wins came against a Chase Brice-led Lions and a Stampeders team that said it was running on fumes in the fourth quarter last week.

Edmonton gets some payback after dropping two straight.

PICK: EDMONTON

SASKATCHEWAN AT HAMILTON

Saturday, August 15
7:00 p.m. ET
TSN/CBSSN/CFL+

The Riders beat Jake Dolegala and the Tiger-Cats a month ago, setting off the chain of events that has led to them facing Harrison Frost this week.

Saskatchewan is still battling the injury bug, but you have to feel better now that Johnny Johnson III has hit the 100-yard plateau and young receivers D’Sean Mimbs and Dylan Djete have proved the Canadian depth is still there.

The offensive line is still doing a great job of protecting Trevor Harris, and the added wrinkle of Tommy Stevens in goal-to-go situations allows Saskatchewan to outmuscle a lot of opponents.

Hamilton’s defence is still formidable, but Frost needs to be able to extend drives this week. If you let Harris and the Riders control the clock, it’s going to be another long evening for Hamilton.

The other factor for the Tiger-Cats is the need to get the ground game going. Larry Rountree III getting just five touches isn’t going to help a young quarterback win football games. I just have a hard time believing the defending Grey Cup champions and their top-ranked defence will get chewed up by a rookie quarterback making his second start.

The Riders have also won five straight games in the East, so it seems Corey Mace has the travel plan figured out after Saskatchewan couldn’t find a way to win east of the province for what felt like years.

PICK: SASKATCHEWAN

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