Start vs Sit: Big return anticipated with Thigpen

Brandon C. Williams

CFL.ca

The conclusion of Sunday’s Roughriders-Alouettes contest officially put the league into the final quarter turn of the regular season, and with only the Stampeders all but assured a postseason berth, Week 16 projects to offer a clearer playoff picture for the rest of the league.

That also means TSN CFL Fantasy football users must be willing to take a risk or two down the stretch. With injuries beginning to mount, role players will have to step up and deliver while those who have posted disappointing numbers for much of the regular season still have time to conjure up a brilliant outing or two.

Let’s not waste time. Who’s worth the start and who needs to be benched?

It may be a wise decision to pass on the Argos’ McLeod Bethel-Thompson this week as the Boatmen ready to take on the Calgary Stampeders, a team who has yet to lose at home. (Kevin Sousa, CFL.ca)

Toronto (3-9-0) at Calgary (10-2-0)

Friday | 9:00 p.m. ET

Start: Reggie Begelton, WR, Stampeders, $4,709 Salary

Begelton played the two best games of his young career prior to last week’s open date, putting up a combined 303 receiving yards and a major on just 12 catches. Four of his 25 receptions have been for more than 30 yards, including a 99-yard major from Bo Levi Mitchell ($10,027) in the Week 14 win over the Tiger-Cats. Begelton has taken the mantle of Calgary’s WR1 in the wake of injuries to Eric Rogers ($7,790), Kamar Jorden ($9,170) and DaVaris Daniels ($6,861). His penchant for big plays works well against a Toronto defence that is last in the league with a 9.7 average yards per pass allowed mark and is eighth in passing yards allowed per game (301.3). Begelton is a bargain play that will give Fantasy users elite production while allowing them to spend elsewhere.

Sit: McLeod Bethel-Thompson, QB, Argonauts, $8,463 Salary

The Argos are eighth in scoring at 22.1 points per game. Even if they weren’t playing a Stamps defence that has allowed a league-low 17 offensive touchdowns, Bethel-Thompson would be a low-end play. Half of his eight passing majors came in his first start in Week 8 and while he has averaged 308 passing yards in his last two games, Toronto’s offence continues to scrap for scores, as running back James Wilder Jr ($8,309) has gone five games without a score and receiver S.J. Green ($6,729) has only one major since Week 8. It might be wise to spend at pivot this week, especially since Bethel-Thompson can’t get the Argos on track.

BC (6-6-0) at Hamilton (6-7-0)

Saturday | 4:00 p.m. ET

Start: Mike Jones, WR, Tiger-Cats, $3,755 Salary

Should Brandon Banks ($10,614) miss a third straight game, look for Jones to be targeted more often. Jones had just three catches in last week’s 35-32 loss at the Lions, yet turned them into 138 yards and touchdown receptions of 75 and 55 yards on his way to his third 100-yard game this season. Don’t expect Jones to average 38 yards per catch as he did last Saturday night, but he is averaging 17 yards per reception this season, and if he can get at least five receptions for only the second time this year, Jones will be a solid value pick.

Sit: Jeremiah Johnson, RB, Lions, $6,879 Salary

Jonathon Jennings looks like the Jennings of 2016, which means BC’s offence will be geared toward a downfield attack and a reduction of Johnson in the game plan. The big back had just 25 yards on seven carries in last week’s thriller over Hamilton and has exceeded 11 carries only twice this year. Johnson can still be a factor in the passing game (five catches last week) but even against a Tiger-Cats run defence giving up 115.5 yards per game, Johnson and his salary are a hard sell to Fantasy users.

Bryant Mitchell has earned the role as Mike Reilly‘s second option in the Eskimos’ offence. Mitchell could enjoy a promising evening against the Bombers as their secondary will be focusing on damage control by D’haquille Williams. (Esks.com)

Winnipeg (6-6-0) at Edmonton (7-6-0)

Saturday | 7:00 p.m. ET

Start: Bryant Mitchell, WR, Eskimos, $5,180 Salary

He has replaced Kenny Stafford ($4,478) as the second option for Mike Reilly ($14,000), having caught 22 of his 24 passes in the last three games. Winnipeg allows the second fewest pass completions of better than 30 yards and will be intent on keeping Edmonton’s D’haquille Williams ($8,836) from hurting them from long range. His presence will offer Mitchell the chance to work short to intermediate routes that will give them opportunities to rack up yards after the catch.

Sit: Eskimos Defence, $3,340 Salary

The status of running back Andrew Harris ($7,822) and the inconsistency of pivot Matt Nichols ($6675) gives the impression that the Eskimos’ D would be a bargain play. Nope. Edmonton is eighth in average yards allowed per play (6.9) and is seventh in offensive touchdowns allowed with 33. A healthy Harris would really make the Eskimos a risky venture, as Edmonton has given up 17 rushing majors while allowing 114.5 yards per game on the ground.

Saskatchewan (8-5-0) at Montreal (3-10-0)

Sunday | 1:00 p.m. ET

Start: Marcus Thigpen, RB, Roughriders, $6,255 Salary

If the Riders want to pose a serious threat to the Eskimos and Stampeders, getting the ball into Thigpen’s hands frequently will be a good place to start. Thigpen has scored on a 97-yard kickoff return and an 82-yard run in the last two weeks while averaging 8.9 yards per carry and 10.9 yards per reception. Saskatchewan faces an Alouettes team that has allowed 39 big plays this year and if the offence can get the ball to Thigpen more than the four times it did last week, Fantasy users can hold their breath in anticipation of him altering the game with his skills.

Sit: Ernest Jackson, WR, Alouettes, $3,167 Salary

B.J. Cunningham ($4,777) and Eugene Lewis ($3,063) will at least get a stream of targets from Johnny Manziel. That leaves Jackson in the cold for offensive touches, as his frustrating season continues. Jackson has not scored a touchdown in 2018 and hasn’t seen the end zone since Week 18 of last year. Alouettes receivers continue in be in a fog, with just one major in the last seven games. Sooner or later, Manziel will throw a touchdown pass, but it’s likely Jackson won’t be the one catching it.

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