Ferguson: With Sinopoli out, who moves the sticks for the REDBLACKS?

There is perhaps no more important stat in all of football than second down conversion rate.

That single stat sets off a chain reaction of other statistics which often tell you the story of how a game unfolded. Teams that convert at a high level on second down are able to stay on the field longer, wearing down the opposing defence while keeping their own defence fresh. They’re also able to own the time of possession, which prevents points against and, most importantly, the team controlling second down controls the tempo and rhythm of the game.

All of these notions are true in the regular season but become paramount in the post-season. For that reason – amongst others – football fans everywhere who enjoy the CFL felt a gut punch when it was announce Brad Sinopoli would miss a significant chunk of time due to injury.

Aside from being a mini cult hero to some ex-U Sports quarterbacks – cough cough – and a proud member of CFL culture, Sinopoli was stringing together yet another incredibly impressive performance in 2017 before being injured.

His absence announced ahead of kickoff in Week 17, coupled with the REDBLACKS’ two late bye weeks, left Ottawa with just two games to find an answer as to who and what could replace the elite second down conversion skills of Sinopoli.

This is no easy feat. Second down is where receivers and quarterbacks earn their money. It’s where late-night and early-morning throwing sessions in order to establish a relationship between pass thrower and pass catcher pay off in the form of first downs, long drives and points.

Ottawa will not find another Sinopoli in-house but is forced to look for a solution in the Eastern Semi-Final against Saskatchewan Sunday. I took a look at all things second down for the Ottawa REDBLACKS to assess where Sinopoli’s production replacement could come from:

After Sinopoli’s injury, the run game took a very slight turn upwards on second down, but not in a way that suggests one injury will all of a sudden make the REDBLACKS a run-heavy second down team.

That turned my attention to the air attack and one statistic really stood out to me. On first down, Trevor Harris is completing 75.8 per cent of his pass attempts. A crazy efficient number by any metric. On second down, Harris is completing 62.6 per cent of his passes. Still a useable number, but a 13.2 per cent drop from first down.

Compare those numbers to Harris’ opposition this week in Brandon Bridge, who completes 63.5 per cent on first down and 57.4 per cent on second down (-6.1%) and Kevin Glenn, who completes 69.1 per cent on first down and 65.5 per cent on second down (-3.6%).

When it comes to targets in Ottawa, we all know that Brad Sinopoli and Greg Ellingson have been the primary destinations. But how many of their targets have come on second down?

It’s pretty amazing that Sinopoli and Ellingson get almost the exact same percentage of targets on second down. Diontae Spencer received a decent number of targets on second down and could be a logical replacement for Sinopoli’s missing touches Sunday.

Greg Ellingson is well known as one of the most explosive playmakers in the CFL, but his second down numbers are nothing to laugh at either. He leads the REDBLACKS in 2017 second down targets:

And is tied with Sinopoli for second down conversions per game.

Due to the having fewer targets but the same number of conversions per game, Sinopoli remains the most efficient second down target in Ottawa this season:

So who is most likely to replace his production? My best bet is a combination of an increased running attack on second down, Diontae Spencer getting a significant raise in second down targets and Greg Ellingson being… Greg Ellingson.

The REDBLACKS need to stay out of second-and-long as much as possible Sunday, but if they get put in that difficult situation, Powell, Ellingson and Spencer will all need to be at their best.