Adam Gagnon/CFL.ca
TORONTO — Despite the Ottawa REDBLACKS currently holding the top spot in the East, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats look to be on pace to win the division and make an appearance in the 104th Grey Cup.
According to the CFL Simulation, the Ticats have a 80.31% chance of finishing first in the East, ahead of Ottawa who sits at 16.42%. Hamilton also holds a 76.23% chance of appearing in the Grey Cup that, according to the Simulator, will most likely be played against the Stampeders (66.13%)
This week, the Simulator has improved the Stamps’ chances of winning the Grey Cup to 74.78% (from 67.91%), and the Ticats fall to 14.55% from 23.61%. Calgary is currently riding an eight-game winning streak leaving many wondering if there is any team that can beat them.
Hamilton, meanwhile, has last season’s favoured MOP candidate (before his season ended early with a knee injury) leading their offence and has one of the league’s best defences, and could quite possibly be the team that spoils the Stampeders’ stellar 2016 season.
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Hamilton’s quarterback Zach Collaros is leading his team to a 76.23% chance of appearing in the 104th Grey Cup (CFL.ca)
After their Week 12 victory over the Ticats, the Toronto Argonauts’ probability of appearing in the 104th Grey Cup increased drastically from 1.74% to 9.37%. Even without Ricky Ray, who has been sidelined with an injury for four to six weeks, the Argos had an admirable performance during quarterback Dan LeFevour’s season debut.
Despite losing to their Alberta rivals, the reigning Grey Cup Champions’ chances of winning the final showdown rose. The Esks now hold a 0.15% chance of going back-to-back and winning the Grey Cup.
Remember, this is only a simulation. There’s a reason they play – games aren’t won on paper.
Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
East Division |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 80.31% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 16.42% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 3.25% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.03% |
West Division |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 97.69% |
| BC Lions | 1.95% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 0.36% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | Less than 1 in 10,000 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 0.00% (Eliminated from first place consideration) |
Probabilities of Appearing in the 104th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 87.03% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 76.23% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 13.95% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 9.37% |
| BC Lions | 7.24% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 5.52% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.45% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.21% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | Less than 1 in 10,000 |
Probabilities of Winning the 104th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 74.78% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 14.55% |
| BC Lions | 4.55% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 3.75% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 1.10% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 1.07% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.15% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.05% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | Less than 1 in 10,000 |
Most Likely 104th Grey Cup Matchups (Assuming no crossover) |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Hamilton-Calgary | 66.13% |
| Ottawa-Calgary | 12.36% |
| Toronto-Calgary | 8.08% |
| Hamilton-BC | 5.18% |
| Hamilton-Winnipeg | 4.41% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
