Johany Jutras/CFL
TORONTO — Predicting who the CFL’s Most Outstanding Player will be is difficult at the best of times, let alone 10 months before the award will be handed out.
Just look who’s won it in the last five years – two quarterbacks (Henry Burris and Travis Lulay), a running back (Jon Cornish), a receiver (Chad Owens), and even a linebacker (Solomon Elimimian).
The best player in the CFL seems to change every year and after 2015 was the year of 40-year-old Henry Burris, who will be the one to take the crown a year later?
We look at five candidates surely on the radar at this point early in 2016:
5. Zach Collaros
Collaros was the MOP favourite before suffering a season-ending knee injury in the middle of the Ticats’ season, putting up stellar numbers in just his second season as a starting CFL quarterback while leading Hamilton to a dominant start out of the gate.
He’s no guarantee to return to full health in time for the season, while the long layoff means there should be some rust to shake off. But as he’s showed us his whole career, expect the unexpected when it comes to Hamilton’s star starting quarterback.
Why he’ll win: From the offensive genius of Kent Austin to a sturdy offensive line and dynamic receiving corps, Collaros will have the tools at his disposal to make a triumphant comeback from last year’s injury. He’s also proven he’s the real deal and one of the most talented pivots around, meaning 2016 could be a year of vengeance for a quarterback who may have won in 2015 if healthy.
Why he won’t win: While he’s expected to make a full recovery from his injury, there’s no guarantee Collaros will be ready for the start of the season. The injury happened later in 2015 and will impact Collaros’ preparation for the 2016 season as he works through his rehab. Maybe an MOP-like season is too much to ask for.
4. Henry Burris
This year’s MOP faces a daunting task: Trying to be MOP for the second year in a row. The last few winners have had a tough time following up their elusive honour and the same will go for Henry, who at 41 years old aims to defy age for the second season in a row.
Burris and the REDBLACKS will be hungry after just missing out on a Grey Cup Championship in 2015, and there’s no reason to expect this year’s league-leading offence to sizzle out in 2016 – but Hank will have plenty of competition from those around him.
Why he’ll win: Age hasn’t affected Burris as last year he put up the best numbers of his career, despite playing with an entirely new receiving corps made up of five newcomers in the nation’s capital. There’s a chance all five receivers will be back in 2016 and Burris will only get more comfortable in the offence he so fluently ran over the past seven months.
Why he won’t win: Jason Maas deserves some credit for Ottawa’s resurgent offence in 2015 and he’s departed to Edmonton to become a head coach. Can Burris continue his success without the REDBLACKS’ talented offensive-minded coach? Also, three of the better defensive coordinators in the CFL will be scheming against Burris in the East, as Orlondo Steinauer, Noel Thorpe and now Rich Stubler will be game-planning against the dynamic pivot. One thing’s certain: Burris and the REDBLACKS won’t be underestimated going into 2016.
3. Derel Walker
It’s hard to remember a receiver in CFL history that burst onto the scene like Derel Walker in 2015. Walker led the CFL in yards per game and receptions per game while playing in roughly over half a season for the Eskimos, and in 2016 he’ll look to prove it was no fluke.
Adarius Bowman led the Esks in receiving this past season and is the league’s leading pass-catcher the last two years overall, but Walker may be the most dynamic offensive player out there. With Eric Rogers potentially taking his talents south, Walker may have the best odds a receiver has of winning Most Outstanding Player.
Why he’ll win: Walker didn’t take long to prove he’s an elite receiver and he built instant chemistry with quarterback Mike Reilly, quickly emerging as one of the fastest and most talented receivers in the league. Walker’s star is rising fast and while he’s already caught many off guard with his sudden emergence, winning the MOP would be fitting for the 23-year-old.
Why he won’t win: Walker dominated in his first CFL season, there’s no way around that – but the sample size leaves us looking for more. Can Walker do it over the course of an 18-game regular season? Everyone knows who he is now and after slipping under the radar through part of 2015, defences will be game planning for him in 2016. The book is no doubt out on Derel Walker.
2. Mike Reilly
While Burris was the Most Outstanding Player last year, Mike Reilly was the Grey Cup’s Most Valuable Player. The Eskimos never lost a game since Reilly returned under centre the week after Labour Day, and their star pivot gives the team everything you ask for in a franchise quarterback.
Reilly’s star power has always been high but in 2016 he’ll look to do something he’s never done in his whole career: Stay healthy, play consistently and win a lot of football games. If he does all of those things, he’s your odds-on MOP favourite.
Why he’ll win: A dominant defence and the league’s best 1-2 receiver duo helped the Eskimos capture a Grey Cup Championship in 2015, but Reilly was the glue that held it all together. He’s a star quarterback and may have won MOP if healthy all of last year, a thought he’ll look to back up the following season as he aims to prove he’s the best quarterback in the CFL.
Why he won’t win: Head Coach Chris Jones left town and took his offensive coordinator Stephen McAdoo with him – an obstacle Reilly will have to overcome in 2016. Also a concern is Reilly’s injury history. No one denies his toughness, but Reilly will need to stay healthy in order to win MOP and that’s the only thing he’s failed to do throughout his career as a CFL starting quarterback.
1. Bo Levi Mitchell
The winningest young quarterback in CFL history, Bo Levi Mitchell has won everything in his career but the Most Outstanding Player. The 25-year-old Katy, Tex. native has a good chance to do that in 2016 despite the departure of Head Coach John Hufnagel (now the team’s GM).
Mitchell was the MOP runner-up to Henry Burris in 2015 and after already winning a Grey Cup at the age of 24, few quarterbacks have had more success at such an early stage in their CFL careers as the Stamps’ starting pivot.
Why he’ll win: No quarterback has been better than Mitchell the last two years and the scary part is he’s still trending upward in his development curve. Mitchell is set to enter his third season as a starting CFL quarterback and says he hopes to run the ball more this year. He’s one of the brightest young star is on the path to becoming an all-time great — and his time is coming.
Why he won’t win: While the change from John Hufnagel to Dave Dickenson at head coach should be a subtle one, it’s still a change to the face of the Calgary Stampeders. Jon Cornish retired while Mitchell may also be forced to work without the presence of league-leading receiver Eric Rogers and athletic dynamo Jeff Fuller – both of whom are pending free agents. Continuity is key for any quarterback and some of that may be lacking in Calgary, for once, in 2016.
A quarterback’s league
The quality of quarterbacks in the CFL is higher than it’s been in a long time, as one could argue that all nine projected starting quarterbacks are candidates to win the CFL’s Most Outstanding Player. Predictably, four of those pivots were on the list we just talked about – but what about the others?
Don’t count out Jonathon Jennings, Ricky Ray, Darian Durant, Drew Willy or Kevin Glenn. Jennings broke out in a big way with the Lions and at 23 accomplished things many quarterbacks don’t show until their mid to late 20s. Jennings has plenty of athleticism and has gotten comfortable with the CFL game remarkably quickly for a player that wasn’t even on a roster at this time last year.
Ray and Durant are coming off mostly lost seasons a year ago, including Durant who’s missed most of the last year and a half. But both will be eager to prove they’re still very much relevant as star CFL passers, as Ray is one of the most accurate quarterbacks in league history while Durant will be leading a resurgent Rider squad under the leadership of a proven winner in Chris Jones.
CFL.ca’s Jamie Nye predicted that both of these quarterbacks would be in the running for MOP late next November.
After missing most of the 2015 season, will Darian Durant return as a top pivot ?
The quarterback flying under the radar the most this off-season might be Willy, who was one of the top-ranked passers through seven starts in 2015 before suffering a season-ending injury. Willy will play behind a young O-line that should take another step forward in 2016, while working with a new offensive coordinator in Paul LaPolice could also help Willy’s career take the next step.
Finally there’s Glenn, hardly anyone’s pick to win MOP next season after spending 2015 with the struggling Riders and Alouettes. But Glenn will get a full off-season to prepare to run the Alouettes’ offence, and don’t forget that he’s a top-10 all-time leading passer in this league. Glenn will bring veteran savvy to the Als’ offence and after leading an explosive offence while healthy in Saskatchewan in 2015, he could turn heads in 2016.
The best of the rest?
It’s a tough call now and the field is wide open. Aside from the nine quarterbacks we mentioned and the only non-quarterback, Derel Walker, there are many other candidates that wouldn’t shock anyone by winning MOP.
No receiver has more yards than Adarius Bowman the last two seasons, while Emmanuel Arceneaux was one of the most productive receivers in the league since joining forces with the youngster in Jennings. Luke Tasker is a shifty ultra-skilled pass-catcher for the Ticats and could take the next step with Zach Collaros returning in the Hammer, and of course in the nation’s capital there are four receivers coming off 1,000-yard seasons all capable of going off.
As far as running backs go, Tyrell Sutton has to be considered a strong candidate after winning the rushing title in 2015. Andrew Harris was the combined yards leader and could be suiting up for a different club in 2016, while another pending free agent in Jerome Messam (if he returns to Calgary) could be a wrecking ball in place of Cornish.
Andrew Harris could be an MOP candidate again in 2016, but will it be with the Lions?
The ultimate X-factor might be William Powell, an elusive downhill runner who was among the league’s most productive late in the season for the REDBLACKS. He appears to have finally given Ottawa its long-term answer out of the offensive backfield and will continue to fly under the radar considering Ottawa’s receivers.
The race for MOP may be a long way off, but let the discussion begin — who will win Most Outstanding Player in 2016?
