Steinberg’s MMQB: Three’s company

There is still a lot to be decided with four weeks to go in the 2015 season. Trying to figure out division titles and playoff seeding is going to be tough and will likely come down to the very end. A whole lot less unknown, however, is determining which teams will actually make the playoffs. Five of the six post-season spots are all but spoken for. That leaves one spot left, and three teams hoping to lock it down.

Who’s got the edge?

No one is displacing Edmonton or Calgary in the West Division. Similarly, we’d have to witness a major meltdown for one of Toronto, Hamilton, or Ottawa to miss the East Division playoffs. So who has the edge of the teams still fighting? Personally, I like the BC Lions over both Montreal and Winnipeg. The reality is, though, there isn’t much separating these three groups.

The first place I looked when coming to my conclusion was at the remaining schedules. Problem is, all three teams have very difficult final stretches. Of the three, Montreal probably has the most favorable schedule, mostly because the Als finish against Saskatchewan. Unfortunately, they also need to be a full game ahead of both Winnipeg and BC to be playoff bound, and I think that’s going to be tough.

From there, it comes down to BC and Winnipeg. While I’m fully aware the Bombers pulled out the win in their head-to-head battle this weekend, I still have a better feeling about the Lions. First off, the Bombers only have three games left, and thus can only get to eight wins. BC has that extra game which theoretically gives the Lions the upper hand.

Obviously none of the schedule analysis really means anything unless teams win games. I think the Lions have the best chance to win the games they’ll need to down the stretch. Despite their loss to the Bombers on Saturday, BC seems like the most dynamic group of the two.

Quite honestly, both BC and Winnipeg aren’t going to scare anyone defensively right now. They both rank near the bottom in a vast number of defensive categories. I don’t see one group being sounder than the other. For me, the Lions do have an edge on the attack, and that’s the main reason I like them more.

Jonathon Jennings isn’t perfect and is still prone to mistakes and bad decisions. Make no mistake, though, he’s dynamic. He’s also helped by a decent group of playmakers around him. Andrew Harris leads the league in rushing while Emmanuel Arceneaux is one of the CFL’s most dangerous receivers.

The fact is, not one of BC, Montreal or Winnipeg has been consistent this season. There’s a reason they all sit well below .500 and are in this position to begin with. Not one of them is head and shoulders better, so handicapping this still has an element of shooting craps. I like the Lions a little better, and I’m excited to see if I’m on the right track or not.

In the driver’s seat

The Edmonton Eskimos have held the defending Grey Cup champions to 43 points in three meetings. That’s pretty impressive stuff. The Esks put on their most suffocating display on Saturday night and it could very well pay off in spades. For the first time this season, Edmonton sits on top of the West Division. More importantly, the Eskimos have taken the season series from the Calgary Stampeders and have the edge down the stretch.

The Eskimos truly are in the driver’s seat to win the West Division. Their schedule shapes up very well, as they don’t play a team above .500 from here on out. Regardless of their opposition, though, the Eskimos have ascended to the point where they’re going to have to beat themselves to lose a football game.

That’s how good they look right now. When the Eskimos put everything together, they’re probably the best team in the CFL. On nights where one area isn’t at an optimum level, they have the ability to compensate elsewhere. That’s what we saw at McMahon on Saturday.

It’s not like Edmonton was shooting the lights out in Calgary. The Esks ran into a pretty darn good defensive group and the Stamps made them work for every point scored. But the Eskimos were even better without the ball.

The Esks have the roster right now to just be better than you, even against really good teams. It’s not a stretch to say Edmonton could outduel, say, Calgary or Toronto in an offensive shootout. By the same token, you don’t have to squint to see the Eskimos prevailing in a defensive slugfest against one of the league’s high-end teams. They’re just a really good team.

Now Edmonton needs to take care of business the rest of the way. If the Eskimos beat the three teams they have left, they win the West. It’s no guarantee they will do that, but unless they’re resting players with things wrapped up, losing to any one of those teams would be a disappointment.

The Stampeders won’t be easy in what seems like an inevitable Western Final matchup. The Eskimos will need all the help they can get, so a home game after an extra week off would be a welcome benefit. The good news for Edmonton is securing those things is 100 per cent under its control.

Wild week

I’m not sure you could have scripted a wilder week for the Toronto Argonauts if you tried. It started off a week ago with one of the highlights of the season and ended yesterday with a big sigh of relief.

We all know what Chad Owens did last Tuesday as the Argos outlasted Ottawa 38-35. It’s one of the most athletic things I’ve ever seen and it came with a crucial game on the line. That’s what big time players do, and no one is going to mistake Owens for anything but a big game player.

What’s incredible is that the Argos finished their week by almost wearing that shoe on the other foot. Montreal was oh so close to completing a 15-point comeback with 70 seconds left on the clock. Heck, their comeback bid even had a one handed catch to talk about! In the end, the Als fell short and Toronto held on to win 25-17 to move into a share of top spot in the East Division. Right now it’s tough not to appreciate what the Argos are doing.

First off, they’ve got a real deal quarterback. Trevor Harris hasn’t come back down to earth because he was never overachieving. Harris is having a really strong season and is proving each week why he is Toronto’s guy going forward. That’s been really cool to see, because until it actually happens, you never know if a guy will be able to sustain such a good start. Harris has done just that.

More notable for me are the circumstances Toronto is thriving under. The Argos are in an odd state of limbo. Their new circumstances don’t kick in until next season. That’s when new ownership takes over and that’s when they move into their new home at BMO Field. The players aren’t playing like they’re in limbo, though.

Because of all kinds of conflicts, the Argos have played home games in Ottawa, Fort McMurray and soon possibly Hamilton. They’ve been running a scaled down staff, they’ve been nomads and until recently they’ve faced a very uncertain future. But Head Coach Scott Milanovich has kept this group on target and the Argos look as good a bet as anyone to come out of the East. I think they deserve a lot of credit for that.

Quick hits

I have disagreed with Saskatchewan’s call to continue rolling out Kevin Glenn at quarterback for weeks now. Well, the Riders decided to make the switch to Brett Smith midway through their loss to Hamilton on Friday night. That needs to be a decision that sticks for the rest of the season.

Don’t sleep on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. They still boast one of the league’s most terrifying defensive units and that will give them a chance to win every game from here on out. Will they be favored against teams like Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary, or Edmonton? Maybe not, but the Ticats are still a factor that can’t be forgotten.