CFL
CFL.ca Staff
With files from Steve Daniel, Head Statistician
TORONTO — While the West division playoff landscape is just about cleared up, the entire four-month race in the East comes down to the last two weeks of the season. Hamilton, Toronto, and Montreal are all within a game and have a fairly equal shot at either winning the East, missing the playoffs, or just in between. All three are in action this weekend, as the Argos and Als tango in Montreal while the Ticats aim for a win on Friday night. Meanwhile, the Bombers look to close out their season on a high in Calgary, while the Lions jockey for position in the West with a matchup in Edmonton.
A Friday Night Football matchup between the Ticats and REDBLACKS sets the tone for a pivotal Week 19, as these Eastern rivals clash for the second time in three weeks. Ottawa looks to pick up some momentum to close out the season, while the Ticats find themselves in need of a win in order to improve their playoff position. This one’s expected to go down to the wire, as both previous meeting were settled late in the fourth quarter.
A Saturday evening double-header kicks off in Cow Town, as the Stampeders begin their playoff preparation with a test against the hungry Blue Bombers. Jon Cornish said he expects to suit up and hopes to move over 1,000 rushing yards on the season, while Bo Levi Mitchell looks to continue his form. The Bombers on the other hand play their final game of the season, hoping to make a statement heading into 2015.
Two of the league’s dominant defences cap off the day’s action in Edmonton, as the Lions visit the City of Champions on the heels of a 10-sack performance in a win over Winnipeg. They’ll look to continue their form and also tighten their grip on third in the West, while the Eskimos can clinch second in the West and a home playoff game with a win.
Finally, the Argos and Alouettes are saving the best for last, as they’ll clash in a battle for first in the East on Sunday afternoon in Montreal. With the season series split at one apiece and both teams red hot coming in, Sunday’s game could very easily decide who finishes where in the East. These teams have combined to win 11 of their last 13, with one of those losses coming in a head-to-head matchup two weeks ago.
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Friday, 7:30 pm ET: Hamilton at Ottawa
Saturday, 4:00 pm ET: Winnipeg at Calgary
Saturday, 7:00 pm ET: BC at Edmonton
Sunday, 12:00 pm ET: Toronto at Montreal
By the Numbers:
Calgary at 14-2: The Stampeders can match the CFL record for wins in 2014 by going 2-0 in the final two weeks. The record is held by Edmonton, which went 16-2 in 1989. They can also match the CFL’s best mark for wins in back-to-back seasons with 30 if they win out. Calgary had 30 wins across 1993-94 and 1994-95. Toronto did that across 1996-97.
East Division three-way tie: In the East, a possible 8-10 tie still exists among Hamilton, Montreal and Toronto should Ottawa win its last two games. It would also require a Montreal loss at Toronto this week, and a Hamilton win in Montreal on the final day.
QB Sacks – a two-year trend: Since the beginning of the 2013 season, QB Sacks have increased substantially. In 2014 they have averaged 5.56 per game – virtually the same as 2013 (5.50 per game) – but in 2012 were only 4.25 per game. The increase in 2014 over the 2012 average is 31% more QB sacks per game.
Underdog wins down the stretch: Over the last two weeks and one game (nine games), a team with a poorer record in the standings has won ONLY ONCE. Last week, 6-9 Toronto defeated 7-8 Hamilton to tie the Ticats with a win-loss record of 7-9.
Turnovers way up down the stretch: From Week 1 to 14, the average number of turnovers in CFL games in 2014 was just 4.1 per game. Over the last four weeks, there have been 79 turnovers made – an average of almost five per game or what equates to an increase of 20% in recent weeks.
10-plus QB Sacks: In 2014, there have already been 10 players reach the 10-plus mark, led by John Chick at 15. John Bowman has 11, which gives him 10 or more for five or more seasons, a feat accomplished only 15 times in CFL history. The 10 players with at least 10 sacks is the most in double-digits since 1988.
Drive Results When a Sack is Allowed: In 2014, when a team does NOT give up a sack the TD% is 14.4%, or one in every 6.9 drives. That success rate drops to just one TD in every 27 drives (3.7%) when a club allows one or more sacks in any possession (only 14 TDs in the 378 drives where at least one sack has been allowed).
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The Alouettes, Ticats, and Argos all remain in the running for first in the East. Here’s a look at the standings heading into Week 19 action. |
Elimimian 125 defensive tackles: He needs just six more defensive tackles to surpass the all-time CFL record of 130 set by JC Sherritt in 2012. Solomon is 47 tackles ahead of number two Brandon Smith of Calgary, the largest gap over second in CFL history. The existing mark is plus-32 by Willie Pless (116 vs 84) in 1997 over Calvin Tiggle.
Elimimian Part II: With eight special teams tackles as well, Elimimian’s total of 129 overall stops is just seven short of matching the CFL record of 136 total tackles set by George White for Calgary in 2005. Elimimian’s 129 total tackles is the second highest number of all-time, two more than Calvin Tiggle’s 127 in 1994 (121 defensive tackles & six special teams tackes).
BC Lions 18.4 ppg allowed: The Lions have allowed only 18.4 points per game in 2014 – that is among the three lowest points allowed totals in the last 25 CFL seasons since 1990. Only Montreal in 2009 (18.0) & Toronto in 1997 (18.2) allowed fewer points than BC has to date in 2014.
More rushing yards updated: In 69 games thus far, the team with more rushing yards has now gone 63-10, winning 86% of the time. Similar results apply for Turnovers as teams with even or fewer giveaways are also 63-10. In 2013, teams with even or fewer turnovers went 61-11 (.847) in the 72 games.
20 TD passes threshold: Only two CFL QBs have thrown 20 or more TD passes in 2014. That matches the lowest total since 1985 when only Roy Dewalt of BC had 20+ TD passes (Dewalt had 27 in 1985).
Defensive touchdowns: The nine teams have combined for 29 defensive scores in 73 games, accounting for 6% of the 46.0 points per game average in 2014. There were just 21 defensive TDs in 72 games last season. It is the highest total since 2010.
Paul McCallum: With a recent run of five straight successful FGs after a 2-of-5 streak, McCallum has taken over the CFL FG% lead at 89.5%. He needs to go at least 2-for-2 over the last two games to post the sixth ever individual season at 90% or better – Paul has the second-best mark in CFL history at 94.3% (2011) and since 2009 has gone 219-of-245 for an 89.4% rate.
Nik Lewis: Last week, Lewis caught a season-high 9 passes for 98 yards and went over the 800 reception mark for his career. He became the 10th player to record 800 career catches and trails Derrell Mitchell (821) by 18 for #9 all-time.
Dexter McCoil: Leads the CFL in interceptions with six and is tied with Jamar Wall of Calgary. The last first-year player to lead the CFL in interceptions was Joe Burnett for Edmonton in 2012.
Career QB milestones – round numbers: Entering Week 19, Henry Burris ranks third in all-time passing yards and is just 59 yards short of 55,000 for his career. Burris passed Hall of Famer Ron Lancaster last week with his 334th career TD pass. Ricky Ray ranks fifth with 51,854 yards – 146 short of 52,000 but still 1,401 behind fourth-place Danny McManus, who finished up with 53,255.
Forced fumbles: In 2014, four players have at least five forced fumbles, led by Shawn Lemon with six. He is two short of the all-time CFL record of eight held by Joe Montford (2000) and John Grace (2002). Lemon has tied the Calgary record of six set by Brian Clark.
Winning with more Turnovers: Across the league teams are 10-53 when they make MORE turnovers in a game. Edmonton bucks that trend as it has won three times this season with more giveaways (3-3). The other clubs are 7-50. Winning clubs in 2014 have averaged just 1.4 turnovers per game, losing teams 3.0 giveaways.
Drive contest: The Stampeders at 14-2 stand out for their ability to score from anywhere on the field. They have more TD drives from deep in their own territory (eight times in 44 chances after starting from inside their own 20-yard line – 18.2%) than any other club. The CFL average is only 9% and by contrast Saskatchewan has one TD in 46 drives started from poor field position.
Drive contest 2: Calgary also leads with an even more important factor; it has taken possession in their opponents’ end 38 times, more than any other team and turned that into 16 TDs. Ottawa has had the fewest opponent end drives with just 18.
15 Blocked kicks: In 2014 there has been a total of 15 blocked kicks in 73 games compared to 10 all last season (50% increase) and only five in 2012. Here are the most recent totals – 2014: 15, 2013: 10, 2012: 5, 2011: 8, 2010: 13.
Player 100s/150s: This week Odell Willis will record his 100th career start, while Ricky Foley will reach the 150 career games played mark.
Fantasy Notes:
QB: Zach Collaros (28.3%), Bo Levi Mitchell (21.2%), Ricky Ray (18.5%), Mike Reilly (15.2%), Jonathan Crompton (9.7%)
RB: John White (20.5%), Nic Grigsby (19.6%), Steve Slaton (12.3%), Paris Cotton (11.8%), Tyrell Sutton (6.8%)
REC: Adarius Bowman (46.4%), Chad Owens (36.5%), Luke Tasker (19.9%), Duron Carter (19.6%), Emmanuel Arceneaux (13.8%),
Flex: Chad Owens (18.2%), Adarius Bowman (11.2%), Duron Carter (7.9%), Nic Grigsby (5.6%), Emmanuel Arceneaux (5.3%)
Kicker: Justin Medlock (48.4%), Swayze Waters (20.2%), Lirim Hajrullahu (14.5%), Paul McCallum (5%), Sean Whyte (3.9%)
Defence/ST: Edmonton (32.3), Calgary (27.4%), Hamilton (21%), Montreal (7.4%), BC (5.4%)
