Matt Cauz
CFL.ca
Maybe because deep down I just need to be loved but I wanted to go into my Grey Cup column predicting a Saskatchewan “upset” over Montreal. In this business it’s always a good idea to curry favour with the collective beast known as Roughrider Nation. Trust me I got more hate mail with my series of jokes making fun of Saskatchewan’s inability to add 12 + 1 than anything else I have written this year.
So with columnists already wondering just how dominant this Alouettes team is and that the opening line has Montreal as a touchdown favourite I assumed I’d struggle to find any optimism for the good people of Saskatchewan.
Or so I thought.
Now, I’m worried about Montreal fans spending their hard earned money to make the trip to Edmonton.
All right maybe that’s stretching things a bit, but really after I examined these two teams and their head-to-head match-ups this year I am giving the edge to Saskatchewan.
Let’s start by looking back at their games they played against one another in 2010. You remember the Game of The Year? The Riders 54-51 OT thriller to kick off the 2010 season? Or how about the sequel? Sure it wasn’t as good as the original, but it was still a very entertaining contest that saw Montreal even the score 30-26. Dig down a little bit and you will find that Saskatchewan, after getting down in both games, not only held their own, but dare I say, kind of dominated Montreal. The numbers would bear that out as the Riders out gained the Alouettes by a whopping margin of 1143 to 717 yards. Darian Durant threw for a ridiculous 926 yards and seven touchdowns! Than there’s Weston Dressler. 22 receptions for 323 yards and two scores! Listen I hate to keep dropping stats at you, and I promise to stop soon but those numbers are just jaw dropping.
On the flip side Montreal had plenty of stars on both sides of the ball, I merely wanted to point out that this game should be a lot closer than many are expecting.
Next let’s take a gander at what they’ve both done in the playoffs. Montreal’s domination of the Argonauts reminded me of Andre The Giant taking on Leaping Lanny Poffo, a mismatch from the start and everyone watching knew who was coming away victorious pretty much right from the beginning. Saskatchewan needed some breaks in both their wins but they beat a red hot B.C. Lions team just brimming with confidence and an uber-talented Stampeders squad on the road. I give the edge to the Riders.
However for the Riders to win there is one man they need to stop, Tim Maypray and one man they need to avoid, Chip Cox. I’m sure you were expecting me to say Anthony Calvillo and Jamel Richardson, but really that is too obvious and let’s be honest; it’s really hard to stop either of those guys.
The reason Montreal was in both those games against Saskatchewan has to do with their special teams. Maypray had a 125-yard missed field goal return TD in the first game and than a 118-yard return in their Week Six re-match. Tack on 227 kick off return yards in the two games and it’s not a stretch to say that Maypray was at least the second most important player for Montreal in those two games.
Than there is the turnover machine (No, not Cleo Lemon), the big play machine, Chip Cox. In Week #1 Cox had a sack, a forced fumble and was generally a thorn in the side of Durant. Than in Week #6 I wrote this:
“By the way I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Chip Cox. I’m not sure how you decide who the “best” defensive player is in the league, but right now no one is creating more big plays than Cox. He just always seems to be around when the ball is hanging up in the air begging to be plucked by a defender. Both of his interceptions were the result of lucky bounces and being in the right place at the right time. Now that may seem like I am underselling him, but trust me I’m not. There are a ton of guys who in the same situation would not have come away with those two picks.”
Saskatchewan’s ability to focus on where Cox is on every offensive snap will go a long way in deciding who wins.
Before giving my final prediction I should note that CB Mark Estelle was not playing in the season opener and he will be starting on Sunday. On the other side WR Rob Bagg who went off for 121 yards and a score in that same game will not be on the field. Just something to keep in mind.
I fully understand why so many people are going with Montreal. Just look at their talent, their pedigree, this team has so few holes. But their biggest weakness is just how prone they are to giving up the big play. When I look at Durant I see a guy who yes will have his stretches of inaccuracy but he’s also the kind of quarterback that in the blink of an eye will burn you deep time after time hitting a group of wide receivers who know how to create separation and cause mismatches all over the field.
By Sunday night we won’t be talking about “The 13th Man” anymore, just that the Saskatchewan Roughriders are the #1 team in the league.
