By Bob Coatsworth
CFL.ca
Ricky Williams enters the 2006 season as arguably the most-hyped running back to ever carry the football in the CFL. So what kind of yardage can we expect the former NFL rushing leader to garner in his first season north of the 49th parallel?
Considering several factors, this is what I came up with:
INJURY
Before starting to project a number, let’s consider what might first keep Ricky from playing all 18 games. In the run-happy NFL, the ability to play a full 16-game schedule is a test. Averaging more than 300 carries a season tends to take a toll on the most successful NFL rushers. In 2005, Seattle’s Shaun Alexander led the NFL with 1,880 yards. He played in all 16 games, and hasn’t yet missed a game due to injury in his pro career.
Injuries, however, have derailed the seasons of several top-notch rushers in the past. Marshall Faulk was a dual-purpose threat with the Indianapolis Colts and St. Louis Rams, but injuries caught up with him in 2000 and he hasn’t played a full season since. Priest Holmes was dominant with Kansas City from 2001-2003, but a neck injury now leaves him on the verge of retirement.
Injury woes have yet to plague Williams, who hasn’t missed a game due to injury in his last four full NFL seasons. Considering his clean bill of health, let’s say he’ll get through the 2006 CFL season without more than bumps and bruises creeping in.
PERSONAL ISSUES
Ricky maintains he loves playing football and has since he was 12 years old. Off-the-field choices though, have caused him to miss 20 out of a potential 32 games in 2004 and 2005. He’ll miss another 16 in 2006, while he plays in Canada. The CFL doesn’t yet have a drug-testing program, but the NFL plans to continue randomly testing Williams since he’s still property of the Miami Dolphins. If Williams turns in a positive drug test to the NFL, the CFL won’t suspend him, but the Argonauts have the right to impose their own disciplinary action. This is probably the biggest threat to take Ricky off the field.
Let’s cross our fingers and say it doesn’t.
RUSH ATTEMPTS
According to CFL.ca statistics, a platoon of Argonauts’ running backs combined for 131 attempts in 2005, which was among the lowest in the league. In fact, the Argonauts handed off only 21.3 per cent of the time. No Toronto back has carried more than 200 times since John Avery had 202 attempts in 2004. Argonauts running backs had 163 carries in 2003, while the Argonauts haven’t led the league in rush attempts since Michael Jenkins did with 266 in 2001.
With the addition of Williams, the Argonauts should definitely be more inclined use the ground game in 2006, but by how much?
Winnipeg’s Charles Roberts led the league with 290 rush attempts last season. Troy Davis was tops with 324 in 2004. Winnipeg ran 48.5 per cent of the time with Roberts, while Hamilton handed off 48.7 per cent of the time to Davis. Toronto has had too much success passing in recent seasons to dedicate as much time to the run, but let’s say they double their propensity from 21 to 42 per cent as a fair guess.
The Argonauts attempted 615 passes in 2005. Considering Williams should keep the offence on the field a little longer in 2006, we’ll bump those pass attempts up to 675. Using that as a guide, and 42 per cent as the amount, Toronto should hand off to Ricky 284 times this season.
YARDS PER CARRY
Starting CFL running backs averaged between 4.8 and 6.4 yards per carry in 2005, an average of 5.5 yards per carry. Montreal’s Robert Edwards led the league with 6.4, but only had 183 attempts. Roberts averaged 5.6 on 290 and led the CFL in rushing yards with 1,624. Roberts is a great back, but doesn’t have the pedigree of Williams, who comes into his first CFL season with unlimited upside and offensive potential.
Mike Pringle is the CFL’s all-time rushing king, and the only person to rush for more than 2,000 yards in a season. Pringle averaged 6.0 yards per carry en route to 2,065 yards in 1998, and averaged as high as 6.4 in his best full season.
It would be naive to think Williams could rival Pringle’s single-season record in his first crack at the CFL, however, it’s not crazy to think he’s capable of averaging six yards per carry or more in the league.
Williams averaged 3.5 yards per carry in two exhibition games (1.75 in his first and 4.1 in his last). Allow for a small adjustment period. And with that being said, I’ll give him five yards per carry for the first three games, six for the bulk of the schedule (12 games) and 6.4 (last year’s league-high) for three breakout games.
THE FINAL NUMBER
Do the math and Williams should calculate out with 237 yards after Week 3, 1,136 for 12 games, and 303 for the other three on the schedule. Add the three numbers together and his total comes to 1,676.
Is 1,676 rushing yards possible? Unless something takes him off the field, I think it is.
Take a look back at the end of the year and we’ll see.
Bob Coatsworth works as an editorial coordinator at The Score Television Network and has been a fantasy sports enthusiast for years.
(The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily of the Canadian Football League)
