Timothy Atticus/CFL.ca
TORONTO — As the dust settles on one of the more interesting weeks of the season, the CFL Simulation has in turn given us some interesting results to look at.
There were just three games played in Week 15, but they had a significant impact on this week’s simulation results.
The Toronto Argonauts have strolled into the 111th Grey Cup conversation, thanks to their impressive win on the road over the BC Lions. The simulation’s cold, digital heart isn’t warming quite yet to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, but their win over the Ottawa REDBLACKS has dimmed some of the buzz that the East Division’s second-place team was carrying last week.
While the Edmonton Elks didn’t play in Week 15, the simulation is still high on the team that’s won four of its last five games. While the Elks still have a ways to go to make the playoffs, the simulation sees them as a big problem for the rest of the league, should they get there. The simulation has them as its second-most likely team to win the Grey Cup in November. The simulation’s No. 1 pick to win it all this year is a familiar name: the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
Our final table is the five most likely scenarios for the 111th Grey Cup. In years past, the top-five matchups accounted for 80-85 per cent of the possible Grey Cup pairings. This year, due to the widespread parity across the league, our top-five matchups account for only 68.7 per cent of the possible pairings. To that end, note that the top-four teams in the West Division are projected to be separated by just two games by the end of Week 21.
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» MMQB: Hamilton’s playoff path is clear but difficult
» Landry’s 5 takeaways from Week 15
» CFL Fantasy Rewind: Steven Dunbar Jr. at the top
Check out this week’s edition of the CFL Simulation to see where your team stands as we head into Week 16.
*C: Clinched a particular outcome
*E: Eliminated from achieving a particular outcome
| ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS | |
| Team (projected 2024 record) | Projection |
| Montreal (12-5-1) | C |
| Ottawa (10-7-1) | 99.54% |
| Toronto (10-8) | 97.56% |
| BC (10-8) | 91.39% |
| Winnipeg (9-9) | 84.87% |
| Saskatchewan (8-9-1) | 61.66% |
| Edmonton (8-10) | 60.09% |
| Calgary (5-12-1) | 2.50% |
| Hamilton (7-11) | 2.39% |
| ODDS TO HOST A PLAYOFF GAME | |
| Team | Projection |
| Montreal | 98.60% |
| BC | 73.52% |
| Ottawa | 64.49% |
| Winnipeg | 64.06% |
| Toronto | 36.74% |
| Edmonton | 31.78% |
| Saskatchewan | 30.11% |
| Calgary | 0.53% |
| Hamilton | 0.17% |
| ODDS TO WIN EAST | |
| Team | Projection |
| Montreal | 85.19% |
| Ottawa | 13.71% |
| Toronto | 1.10% |
| Hamilton | E |
| ODDS TO WIN WEST | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg | 43.98% |
| BC | 31.99% |
| Edmonton | 14.07% |
| Saskatchewan | 9.90% |
| Calgary | 0.06% |
| ODDS TO APPEAR IN 111TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Montreal | 60.59% |
| Winnipeg | 36.00% |
| BC | 29.22% |
| Toronto | 23.07% |
| Edmonton | 22.91% |
| Ottawa | 15.93% |
| Saskatchewan | 11.84% |
| Hamilton | 0.33% |
| Calgary | 0.11% |
| ODDS TO WIN 111TH GREY CUP | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg | 25.49% |
| Edmonton | 18.01% |
| Montreal | 17.98% |
| BC | 17.93% |
| Toronto | 8.91% |
| Saskatchewan | 7.41% |
| Ottawa | 4.12% |
| Hamilton | 0.11% |
| Calgary | 0.04% |
| MOST LIKELY 111TH GREY CUP MATCHUPS | |
| Team | Projection |
| Winnipeg-Montreal | 21.66% |
| BC-Montreal | 17.53% |
| Edmonton-Montreal | 14.04% |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 8.13% |
| Saskatchewan-Montreal | 7.29% |
