5 things to watch in Winnipeg, BC’s battle for first

For a couple months now everybody around the CFL has been talking about a few things.

Those things have been when would the Toronto Argonauts dominance either end or lead to a strangely early division championship and game three between the Lions and Bombers.

At this point in the season with Calgary struggling, Edmonton making ground from a hole they dug far too deep way back in the early summer, and Saskatchewan battling to maintain their ‘threat’ status, it’s clear that BC and Winnipeg have separated themselves atop many of the West Division’s metrics.

THANKSGIVING WEEKEND PRESENTED BY PUROLATOR
» Weekly Predictor: Who’s winning on Thanksgiving Weekend?
» Prediction Time: CFL.ca writers’ Thanksgiving Weekend picks
» Buy Tickets: Bombers at Lions

After a stunning early season win in Manitoba by the visiting Lions and a message-sending victory in Vancouver by the Bombers, the third and final matchup will go a long way to determining home field, a bye week, and the last chance to earn momentum head-to-head until a possible Western Final matchup.

With all that in mind here are five aspects of this highly anticipated Week 18 matchup I’ll have my eye on this weekend.

MATCHUP TO WATCH
Winnipeg offensive lineman Jermarcus Hardrick vs. BC defensive end Mathieu Betts

The first time these two played Mathieu Betts seemed nearly unstoppable. The Winnipeg offensive line looked uncharacteristically sluggish off the ball and Betts was firing off the rock in a way few pass rushers do consistently. In Week 3 Betts posted a 75.5 pass rush grade judged by Pro Football Focus. Six weeks later – and half a season ago – Betts had his worst PFF pass rush grade of the season (54.1) against the same line.

It was clear Winnipeg had no interest in allowing Betts to ruin another game plan, but I believe the reality of Betts vs. the Bombers lays somewhere between his respectfully elite and awful performances against Winnipeg. We’ll wait and see this weekend.

TENDENCY TO WATCH
First down called running plays

The Bombers have controlled the tempo of many games this season, attacking early with their big gain pass attack before settling in to let the ground game salt away victories. That in combination with leaning on running back Brady Oliveira to control wet weather games has led Winnipeg to a CFL second ranked 47.7% first down called run percentage this season. Only the Toronto Argonauts have a higher rate of first down run calls.

On the other side, BC calls runs on just 33.8% of first downs this season, staying aggressive consistently through the air, while admittedly building in a variety of short pass plays that feed off their run game looks.

Will this trend hold true in the final showdown or will each club play off their established tendencies? My gut says BC stays with who they are while Winnipeg scores an early homers off a run fake with Dalton Schoen or Nic Demski on the receiving end of a deep crossing route.

COACH TO WATCH
BC Defensive Coordinator Ryan Phillips 

This one is simple, Phillips can only do so much as a coach standing on the sidelines against the Bombers’ well rounded attack. He needs his players – especially on the back end – to make plays on the football when in the air in order to slow down Winnipeg from getting on that massive roll we saw in the first quarter of their last matchup.

The question for me is how much blitz Philips is willing to send to create pressure on Zach Collaros while knowing he is leaving defensive backs vulnerable in single coverage down the field.

PLAYER TO WATCH
Winnipeg receiver Dalton Schoen

In a year where BC receivers are mutually crossing the 1000-yard mark, Austin Mack is creating waves in Montreal, and all over the CFL names like Shawn Bane Jr. and Reggie Begelton are key receiving threats, Dalton Schoen continues to sit at or near the top of many statistical categories and remains a constant threat to tear open the scoreboard in Winnipeg’s favour.

STORYLINE TO WATCH
You already know..

This game will determine the season series, add to the pile of film to watch before they potentially play in the playoffs, and help decide who gets the always valuable playoff bye week. But more than anything else, it sets the tone for how these two will feel about each other in a month.

All the workouts, practice, and film study year round lead to days like this and as big as it feels, this Week 18 matchup will pale in comparison to the magnitude of playoff football coming shortly.