Weekly Predictor: Will the Roughriders get the W?

Jamie Nye

CFL.ca

@jamienye

The CFL is getting complicated.

And this week comes to a head with BC in Winnipeg, the undefeated Toronto Argonauts against a team with plenty of urgency and then two matchups featuring teams with identical or near identical records.

This week will test any prognosticators mettle.

Short of flipping a coin, many of these picks are as much as a hunch as a refined detailed analytic breakdown of each and every matchup.

In other words, best of luck!

BC at Winnipeg
Thursday, August 3
8:30 p.m. ET

Last time out, the BC Lions came into Winnipeg and put the CFL on notice! They got seven sacks and completely overpowered the Bombers on their way to a 30-6 win.

The obvious difference this week will be Dane Evans at quarterback due to Vernon Adams Jr. not yet ready to return from a knee injury.

Now it’s the Bombers who will be able to send the message as some have been quick to try to proclaim Winnipeg is no longer the powerhouse they have been over the last two and half seasons.

These are the types of games the Bombers have always been able to perform well in of late. Being tested and punching back and I expect a big swing at the Lions – hopefully not literally – in this one.

The issue is just how insanely good Ryan Phillips defensive unit has been in BC. They’ve only allowed five offensive touchdowns in seven games. They’re 60 yards allowed/game better than the next best, which so happens to be Winnipeg.

You can see the conundrum of trying to pick which western power will overcome on Thursday night.

But I’m going to go with a little bit of history here as the Winnipeg Blue Bombers have only lost once after a bye week in the last four seasons, and that was a one point epic game against Montreal.

PICK: WINNIPEG

Toronto at Calgary
Friday, August 4
9:00 p.m. ET

The Calgary Stampeders don’t have a lot of time to recover after Sunday’s field goal fest against the Montreal Alouettes.

Once again, Jake Maier and the Stampeders offence couldn’t finish.

The Argonauts are coming into McMahon Stadium at 6-0 after a dominate defensive and special teams victory against the Roughriders that saw Chad Kelly have his least spectacular game of the season. Though, the Argos will be just fine with a 31-13 win, needing a touchdown from the defence and special teams to pull away from the Riders.

The other factor that goes into this pick is the Stampeders have one of the worst run defences through the first eight weeks of the season and there is no denying that the combo of AJ Ouellette and Andrew Harris is about to give them fits if they can’t figure it out.

The Argos are just the overall better team.

PICK: TORONTO

Montreal at Hamilton
Saturday, August 5
7:00 p.m. ET

I know it’s only August but the race is on for the playoffs in the East Division.

Last time out the Alouettes rolled into Tim Hortons Field with a 38-12 victory. A defensive touchdown and a punt return touchdown highlighted the trip for the Als but the biggest story out of their last matchup was the inability to score in the redzone for the Tiger-Cats.

They had similar yardage and first downs but the Alouettes scored two of three times in the red zone while the Tiger-Cats were only kicking field goals.

Unfortunately, the Tiger-Cats are once again going deep into the depth chart with Taylor Powell needing to make his second start after Bo Levi Mitchell landed back on the six-game injured list following his late-game injury against Ottawa.

In Montreal, you saw a little bit more life in the running game against Calgary with William Stanback, though as previously mentioned Calgary does struggle against the run. But so too have the Hamilton Tiger-Cats this season; they allowed Stanback 7.7 yards/carry in the previous meeting.

If that happens again, it’s going to be a long night for the Tiger-Cats.

But I’m riding a bit of hunch on this one this week after seeing how the Tiger-Cats defended against Dustin Crum, they can do the same to keep Cody Fajardo contained. And Taylor Powell didn’t look too out of place in his first start a few weeks ago and that was against the Toronto Argonauts.

PICK: HAMILTON

Ottawa at Saskatchewan
Sunday, August 6
7:00 p.m. ET

The big question in Riderville right now is how long will their slide last? You see Saskatchewan is having flashbacks to 2022 when the team started 4-1 and finished 6-12.

This year’s 3-1 start has quickly turned into 3-4 and they’re without starting quarterback Trevor Harris to try and guide them out of it.

Mason Fine has been ‘fine’, which I’m sure he’s tired of hearing for likely his entire life, but the Riders need more out of their quarterback to win games. The offence hasn’t scored a first half touchdown since Week 2 against Winnipeg. And it was Jake Dolegala in mop up duty who led the team on their only touchdown drive of the last two weeks.

The good news in Saskatchewan, is there defence has been great! They limited Chad Kelly and company and the week before did a masterful job of containing the BC Lions offence.

Now, can they handle the scrambling of Dustin Crum? The last time they tried to defend against a quarterback like that, Calgary’s Tommy Stevens had a field day at the end of last season.

The concern in Ottawa around Crum is teams are starting to figure out his tendencies after watching three weeks worth of film. Crum hasn’t tried to stretch the field and last week ran as many times as he completed passes. That’s not exactly a recipe for sustained success unless he can show he can throw.

The REDBLACKS faced second and long 14 times last week and only converted three of them for 21%.

The combination of the Riders defensive play of late, home crowd advantage and Mason Fine likely feeling some heat to produce.

PICK: SASKATCHEWAN

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