Walter Tychnowicz/CFL.ca
As this was written, it was a cool 16-degree morning in Edmonton with rain expected through the day, clearing just in time for kickoff at Commonwealth Stadium.
It’s a fitting forecast for a team and a city full of fans that have been under some dark clouds the last few seasons and the last few weeks in particular. The 2023 campaign has been one riddled with close calls, dashed hopes and mouths-agape disbelief as the Elks have stumbled to a 0-5 start. If you zoom out, you see the bigger, uglier picture of a now 19-game long home losing streak that stretches back to 2019.
And yeah, we all know how we arrived at Loss No. 5, with a miscue from a first-year returner that capped a nine-point swing and a one-point deficit that the Green and Gold team couldn’t overcome. It’s the kind of loss that lands on a team like a bag of bricks, the kind of outcome that sets Twitter aflame (which admittedly is like finding a house laced with kerosene-soaked sheets just waiting for a match) with instant experts hot-taking their way to solutions.
Still, I emerge from all of that to say this: The Edmonton Elks will win tonight. Win No. 1 is coming. The home losing streak will end at the de-clawed paws of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
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What do I base this on? Let’s call it a combination of a gut feeling and the incremental progress that a struggling team has made in the midst of its shortcomings.
Look at last week. From CFL.ca’s Elks-Ticats game notes, which point out that the Elks dominated Saskatchewan in areas where advantages there usually indicate a win.
They held the following seven edges over the Riders last week but still did not win: Fewer turnovers: (one to the Riders’ three); higher time of possession (37:02), better field position (36 yl vs 32 yl), More big plays (two to one), more yards gained (369-358), sacks allowed: zero vs four by Saskatchewan and second-down conversion percentage (57 to 42).
The nine-point swing and Taylor Cornelius‘ interception nullified that of course, but the Elks checked a lot of the boxes that will usually get you a win. If they can continue to do that, they’ll get their breakthrough. And the Ticats just might be the right opponent for them at the right time.
A well-protected Taylor Cornelius would make a world of difference for the Elks, who are still seeking their first win of the season (Walter Tychnowicz/CFL.ca)
As we all know, things haven’t gone as projected for the Tiger-Cats so far this season. Bo Levi Mitchell landed on the six-game injured list after just his second appearance in his new colours. While the offence has shown improvement in the three weeks that Matthew Shiltz has taken over starting duties, he has had his share of trouble out West. Tonight marks his 11th career start and he stands at an even 5-5. Those five wins have all come against East opponents. He is 0-5 against West Division teams.
While Hamilton boasts an intimidating defence that’s managed 11 sacks this season (good for fourth in the league), they meet an Edmonton offensive line that despite giving up a league second-worst 16 sacks, pitched a shutout against the Riders. If Cornelius can get good protection, he may be able to show more of that dual threat ability that led to the team signing him to an extension last season. Cornelius, for what it’s worth, had been taking good care of the ball up until the conclusion of last week’s game. He had gone 74 passes without an interception, before Nic Marshall stepped up and made the game-sealing play at Mosaic.
And wouldn’t it be something if C.J. Sims — who let the go-ahead rouge roll into the end zone last week — made up for it this week with a return touchdown for the Elks? He’s been close, showing glimpses of what he might be able to do in his CFL debut game in Week 3 against the Argos, where he had 181 yards on six kickoff returns and 101 yards on three punt returns. Were he able to find the end zone, he’d snuff out another longstanding streak, giving Edmonton its first return touchdown since the 2015 season.
Losses like the one that the Elks took last week can go one of two ways. The negative can dwell and pull a team down, or they can in a strange way bring a room together. The sun came up last Friday morning after that crushing loss, and the clouds are set to part tonight over Commonwealth Stadium, where the Elks have a shot at putting a tiring narrative to bed and taking the first step in gaining control of their season.
I think tonight’s their night.
