Kevin Sousa/CFL.ca
“So you’re telling me there’s a chance. YEAH!” – Lloyd Christmas
That quote was inspired by the recent CFL Simulation article with the headline, “CFL Simulation: The rise of the Ticats.”
I was scanning through the numbers and found that the Hamilton Tiger-Cats only have a 4.06% chance of winning the 109th Grey Cup and the number felt low.
Maybe I’m filled with a classic case of recency bias, but in the last month Hamilton has defeated the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (with Zach Collaros playing the whole game), the Saskatchewan Roughriders and the Calgary Stampeders 35-32 in Calgary.
I understand this hasn’t been a great year for Saskatchewan but as we know the East doesn’t exactly have the best record against Western foes so I’m including them for my argument that the Tiger-Cats deserve a higher percentage to win the Cup.
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What I appreciated about their Friday night win at McMahon Stadium was they managed to overcome their own mistakes. Dane Evans was shaky in the first half, missing Steven Dunbar Jr. for what should have been as easy touchdown pass. There was also a defensive breakdown that led to Jake Maier finding a super wide-open William Langlais for an opening 13-yard score.
The Tiger-Cats special teams, who made plenty of big plays throughout the night, were caught sleeping on a successful onside kick near the end of the third quarter (what a bounce right to Tyson Middlemost!) that would lead to a Rene Parades field goal. Finally, Hamilton committed two turnovers of their own, including a third down run by Wes Hills that would soon result in Calgary jumping out to what seemed to be an insurmountable late 32-27 lead.
This win was about the stars on Hamilton’s roster stepping up. Richard Leonard woke the Tabbies up with his second quarter 64-yard interception return that gave Hamilton a 10-7 lead despite Calgary dominating statically. It was the two-time All-Star’s second theft of the night and without his first half heroics, who knows if the Tiger-Cats come away with a win.
Julian Howsare (three tackles, one interception and one sack) was a force helping to carry a defensive line that was without Micah Johnson. Tim White moved up to fifth in the CFL in receiving yards after finishing the night with 106 yards and a touchdown. Three of Hamilton’s scoring drives (two field goals and one touchdown) saw White come up with catches of 20, 18 and 14 yards and then, of course, was his end of game heroics. That 42-yard reception was a thing of beauty. On the way up he out jumped one defensive back and then on the way down he was able to hold on to the ball as he took a vicious shot. What a combination of athleticism and concentration.
The next play it was Dane Evans going back to his favourite receiver for the game-winning touchdown with 11 seconds left. Finally, credit to Evans who kept his cool after a tough first half to lead Hamilton to 21 second half points.
Hamilton deserves better than a 4.06% chance to be the final team standing for reasons beyond just what we saw on Friday night. With Micah Johnson in the lineup, they have the best run defence in the league and think of how important that could be now that William Stanback is healthy for the Montreal Alouettes. Across the board, Hamilton has solid special teams with players like returner Lawrence Woods (Hamilton’s last touchdown does not happen without his 47-yard kickoff return) and the league’s most accurate kicker in Seth Small. Small’s 57-yarder against Calgary was pure Gwen Stefani as it was no doubt (I am so sorry). The offensive line is improving as they held the top pass rushing team to just one sack.
Despite the 6-10 record, you can see the ingredients needed for a deep playoff run. I believe their record obscures the fact this group has done a lot of winning the past couple years, they have made the past two Grey Cups so there is post-season experience littered throughout this roster.
I believe that Orlondo Steinauer and the entire organization would tell you this has been a disappointing season, but we have seen moments of greatness. Their late, game-ending touchdown drive against Winnipeg that extended Hamilton’s lead to 48-31 was as physical as I’ve seen them play this year. They held on and found a way to beat Calgary. I have seen evidence of an elite group buried within this team. We have all witnessed the up and down season from Dane Evans from multi-interception games against Toronto to that five-touchdown performance against Winnipeg. Only Nathan Rourke has a higher single-game passing day than Evans.
You can trace this losing record to the usual football factors, injuries, bad luck, and inconsistency but in the end, it will always come down to turnovers. Hamilton is dead last in turnover margin and that statistical fact is the gold medal winner for why this squad will end the year with double digit losses.
The flip side is we have witnessed what this group is capable of when they protect the ball. In those three wins over the West, the Tiger-Cats finished a collective +5 against Winnipeg, Saskatchewan and Calgary. That is a far cry from the eye popping 14 turnovers they committed in their quartet of games versus Toronto from Week 9 to Week 13.
Obviously Hamilton does not deserve to be anyone’s favourite, as they are a massive Grey Cup dark horse. But they also deserve the benefit of the doubt that a deep run is in them. We have seen it before, they’re on a hot streak right now, who knows when it will end?
