CFL Simulation: The Tabbies are taking control

TORONTO — With the tight race atop the West Division continuing to amp up with every passing week, we got to see the weight that a win or a loss could have on the CFL Simulation.

After being projected to be in the most likely Grey Cup matchup against Hamilton in the Week 16 edition of the sim, a loss to those very same Ticats severely hurt the Bombers’ this time around. Along with their drop to third place in the West standings, Winnipeg was also dealt huge blows to their odds to host a playoff game, win the division, and appear in the championship game.

That’s good news for the Saskatchewan Roughriders, who won the West in 44 percent of sims and made it to the championship nearly half the time. They also feature in the most likely Grey Cup showdown for this week.

Speaking of the Ticats, they remain in the drivers seat in the East. The victory over Winnipeg vaulted their chances to appear in the Grey Cup to 85 percent and their chances to win the whole thing up nearly 20 percent. Hamilton is also in the top three most likely matchups for the title.

The most surprising jump comes from the BC Lions, who vaulted Edmonton in odds to both appear in and win the 107th Grey Cup game. However, the Esks could put that dream to bed in Week 17, as they’d clinch the crossover playoff position with a victory.

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The model considers the following:

• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• The margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular-season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team).  For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 1,990/10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

Here’s a look at how all the teams stack up: