Fantasy Strategy: Injuries murky the waters of Week 20

Week 20 in the CFL regular season often presents Fantasy players with a lot of uncertainty over playing time for as teams lock up playoff positions and rest starters with little warning. This season presents just as much murkiness, but rather than it being attributed to resting starters, it’s due to injured ones that muddy the Fantasy waters.

There are few certain options this week and a lot of difficult decisions to be made.

QUARTERBACK

Top Projected:

Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $11,659

Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY – $9,088

James Franklin, TOR – $8,713

Masoli is far and away the top projected quarterback on the slate, but he’s also far and away the highest priced. Masoli leads a Ticats passing attack that is the most efficient in the league in terms of yardage (9.51 yards per attempt) and third most efficient for passing scores. Just like last week, the Ottawa defence is about league average in terms of defending the pass but does give up passing touchdowns at the second highest rate behind only Toronto. That’s a matchup worth attacking. The problem is, with the loss of Brandon Banks, there’s a good argument to be made that the whole Ticats offence bogs down like it did in the two games he missed earlier this season. In those two games, Masoli averaged more than a yard less per attempt (8.4) and his TD rates were about 40 per cent lower. If you adjust his rates down accordingly, he slumps back to the rest of the pack. Add to that a forecast for 20-35 km/hr winds and heavy rain and it gets more difficult to justify the spend.

RELATED
» Total CFL Pick ‘Em: Make your picks today!
» Be the GM in CFL Fantasy
» RotoExperts: Week 19 Fantasy Rankings

Mitchell continues to look out of sorts, having averaged only 242 yards passing over the past five weeks while averaging 305 through the first 11 games this year. His interception rates have also ballooned with nine in his past six games after throwing only five through the first 11. His completion rates have also fallen below 60 per cent in seven of his last eight games despite being a career 64.8 per cent passer. There are problems in Calgary beyond injured receivers. Week 20 doesn’t look to help, as Winnipeg allows the fewest yards per pass attempt this season along with the second lowest rate of passing TDs per attempt. Given the cacophony of problems in Calgary, this is a good week to pass on the Stamps passer.

Franklin leads the league in rushing touchdowns while averaging 7.8 yards per carry, not counting short yardage plunges. If he were a starting running back at this price, he would be worthy of consideration given his ridiculous market share of rushing touchdowns (78%). In some ways, whatever he gets players for passing points are just a bonus to his rushing totals for Fantasy purposes. That said, the matchup with the Alouettes secondary that allows the third most yards per attempt, the fourth most passing TDs per attempt, and the most plays per game to opposing offences (61.9) is enticing, too. It’s a fine week to save some salary at QB.

RUNNING BACK

Top Projections:

Andrew Harris, WPG – $7,786

Alex Green, HAM – $9,444

William Powell, OTT – $8,722

William Stanback, MTL – $5,262

Punt Single(s):

Patrick Lavoie, SSK – $2,500

Overall, the position suffers from being either dreadfully overpriced or in terrible matchups. Harris is in the latter category. In his previous matchup versus the Stampeders, he carried the ball seven times for a total of 13 yards. Fantasy players were bailed out somewhat by 11.1 receiving points that afternoon but his role in the passing game has largely evapourated over the past six games since that outburst. Harris averages 5.7 yards per carry on the season but Calgary allows a league low 4.84 average on the ground. In previous seasons, he could count on rushing TDs to boost his totals, but he has only one of those in his past seven games as much of the red zone carries have been given to backup QB Chris Streveler, who has four rushing TDs over that span. The salary relief is nice, but it would take Harris getting the red zone carries back again to reach this projected total.

Green may be the most enticing option this week from a raw projection perspective as Hamilton has tended to tilt a little more run heavy in games without Banks in the lineup. The price tag, however, is prohibitive as he projects to be one of the worst values at the position with an over $9K tag. Ottawa allows a league average 5.15 yards per carry and a pretty average rate of rushing TDs per attempt as well, so the matchup isn’t special. If, however, Green receives an increased workload and an extra target or two in the passing game, he could easily be the top RB on the slate.

As I wrote about Powell last week, all the rushing yardage in the world can’t justify this price tag if he doesn’t score touchdowns. Then, backup QB Dominique Davis went out and vultured the three goal line touchdowns and Powell was held without a reception for the second game in a row. In PPR scoring, those two issues are impossible to gloss over. Hamilton still allows the second most yards per carry but unless players get an unexpected ceiling game for Powell with a TD and a handful of receptions, there is no way for him to pay off a nearly $9K tag. Getting 220 yards rushing is an unlikely way to get to the 2.5x value most players are looking for.

William Powell hopes to find the end zone in a Week 20 matchup with the Ticats (The Canadian Press)

Stanback doesn’t get nearly the number of carries as most full-time RBs as the Alouettes offence just can’t sustain drives long enough to stay on the field. He also has yet to score a touchdown in his rookie season as Montreal has the lowest scoring offence to be found. His price, though, is much more reasonable than any other lead back, the Argos allow the most yards per carry, and the Als are home favourites for what feels like the first time in half a decade. On a slate where most of the other top options are unpalatable for various reasons, it’s a reasonable consideration to look to the mid-tier option.

The rest of the backs in the pool are all part of time share situations in Toronto, Calgary, BC and Saskatchewan and as a result mostly boom or bust options depending on which player may get the most touches on a given week. Dexter McCluster is an interesting cheap option with his PPR prowess while Cameron Marshall is an interesting mid-tier option versus a BC defence that is ferocious versus the pass but porous on the ground. The most interesting punt option on the slate may be Lavoie, who has converted to a fullback/slotback hybrid position since being traded to the Riders, averaging 5.5 targets per game with his new team. At a mere $2,500 he’s a fine option.

WIDE RECEIVER

Top Projected:

Diontae Spencer, OTT – $9,228

Luke Tasker, HAM – $9,179

Eric Rogers, CGY – $6,745

Brad Sinopoli, OTT – $7,831

Greg Ellingson, OTT – $6,806

Geno Lewis, MTL – $3,947

Punt Single(s):

Chris Matthews, CGY – $2,500

Markeith Ambles, CGY – $2,585

K.D. Cannon, SSK – $2,500

Justin Buren, HAM – $2,500

I did not foresee a week in which the mercurial Spencer versus arguably the top pass defence in the league would project as the top scorer at the position but here we are. Spencer has had games anywhere from 8.6 to 42.7 Fantasy points this season with an average around 17.9 points per game. His work as a return specialist certainly raises his floor production but having to compete with Sinopoli and Ellingson, who are second and third in the league in targets, hurts his ceiling. Hamilton allows the second fewest yards per target (7.54) and the fewest plays per game to opposing offences (53.6) so the Ottawa passing attack would have to be unexpectedly efficient for a second straight week for any of the REDBLACKS big three to have the big weeks necessary to pay off high salaries. Ellingson is the best value of the bunch simply because he has the lowest tag.

The lone remaining member of the feared Ticats receiving corps from earlier this season is Tasker. There is a case to be made that, in Banks’ absence, Tasker will be even more heavily relied on. However, in the two games Banks missed earlier, Tasker averaged 7 targets per game, which is right on his season average (6.93). Without Banks to threaten secondaries vertically, defences will congest the shorter routes which is where Tasker does a lot of his damage underneath coverage. It may be just a small sample size, but there is no certainty that Tasker’s workload increases and a high likelihood that his efficiency decreases. Cheaper options in the Ticats receiving corps like Mike Jones ($4,087), Terrell Sinkfield ($4,964), and Buren ($2,500) may be more likely options to soak up Banks’ vacated targets. Ottawa allows the second highest rate of receiving TDs per attempt, so one of these three is likely to get some opportunities to cash in.

Despite Calgary’s struggles in the passing game, Rogers continues to average nine targets per game since his return and has the most air yards per game of any receiver on the slate over that three-game span. Mitchell’s accuracy problems have kept him from converting those air yards in to Fantasy points as he has a RACR (efficiency: receiving yards/air yards) that puts him in T.J. Graham territory near the bottom of the league over the past three games. The matchup with Winnipeg is as difficult as it gets, but the underlying metrics say he’s on the edge of breaking out. The rest of the Stamps receiving corps – Chris Matthews and Ambles notably – are some of the best cheap options on the slate despite the matchup as they both clock in at near minimum salary.

Lewis had his best game as a pro in last week’s loss to the Argonauts, catching all eight of his targets for a total of 100 yards and a touchdown versus a Toronto secondary that allows the most yards per target and most receiving TDs per target in the league by a wide margin. He draws the Argos again this week. Poor quarterback play makes all the Montreal receiving options high risk plays, but Lewis’ low price tag makes him the most likely option to succeed in the best matchup for receivers available.

DEFENCE

Top Projected:

Winnipeg Blue Bombers – $6,281

Montreal Alouettes – $3,200

Just a few short weeks ago, it would have been near unthinkable to consider starting the struggling Bombers’ defence versus the high-powered Stamps offence – let alone at the highest price tag at the position – yet here we are. The Bombers have two games of nearly 30 Fantasy points in the past three weeks and face an unexpectedly turnover-prone Calgary squad in recent weeks. Winnipeg is near the top of the league in sacks (41) and leads in forced turnovers (45), so if Mitchell doesn’t turn things around quickly, it could be another big weekend for the Blue and Gold.

The Alouettes are the best cheap option of the week at a minimum-priced $3,200. They are coming off two straight games of double-digit fantasy points and face an Argos offence that has given up a league high 41 turnovers. They have also developed a more consistent pass rush over the past month, averaging three sacks a game over that stretch. Toronto is the third lowest scoring offence as well, making point prevention a more solid bet as well.

STACKS

This is the toughest slate for stacking options this season as most of the top receiving targets are lost to injury and most of the top running backs are in bad game environments as high priced underdogs. It’s fine for players to stack their passer with the expected top receiver on the team but the correlation is less than certain this week and the projected value isn’t great. Week 20 may be one to go with a cheap stacking option due to the uncertainty.

Masoli > Tasker, Sinkfield or Buren

Franklin > S.J. Green, McCluster

Mitchell > Rogers, Ambles or Mathews

WEEK 20 PROJECTIONS

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

RECEIVERS