Johany Jutras/CFL.ca
It’s probably difficult to overstate how good the Calgary offence has been this season despite all their injuries. This week’s matchup versus Toronto may make that case more strongly than any other week this season. Loading up on Stampeders and plugging in clear values at running back will probably be the most popular lineup building strategy this week, so players will have to pick and choose their spots to gain leverage on the field.
QUARTERBACK
Top Projected:
Mike Reilly, EDM – $14,000
Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY – $10,027
Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $11,163
Punt Single:
Matt Nichols, WPG – $6,675
Mike Reilly and the Eskimos offence laid an egg for Fantasy players on Saturday in Ottawa. The offence lacked any sense of urgency or rhythm and never got on track versus a REDBLACKS defence that is fine, but not dominant. The offence should expect a slight bump in pace this week versus Winnipeg, as the Bombers allow the third most plays per game to opposing offences. The passing matchup versus the Bombers isn’t good given they allow a below-average number of passing yards per attempt (7.89) and the second fewest total passing touchdowns (10). Reilly is always in the conversation, but this week does not present a clear path for him.
Bo Levi Mitchell, on the other hand, gets to lead the second-most efficient passing attack in the CFL (9.24 yards per attempt) versus the most generous pass defence to this point (9.74 yards per attempt). The Argonauts made the Saskatchewan passing offence look dangerous at times last week. Even with an injury-depleted receiving corps – that may get Eric Rogers back this week – Mitchell leads the league in touchdown passes (27). He faces off against an Argos defence that allows the most touchdown passes per attempt to this point and that has allowed the second most plays of 30-plus yards (26). Even if Rogers doesn’t suit up, Mitchell is set to have one of his best games of the season.
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Jeremiah Masoli and the Ticats’ passing game have looked somewhat sluggish the past two weeks without Brandon Banks. With Banks’ speed to take the top off the defence, Tasker has been unable to get open with consistency and the whole offence has been bogged down. With Banks back at practice this week, it’s likely he returns to game action and the Hamilton offence returns to being the dynamic aerial attack it had looked like with the duo of Banks and Tasker wreaking havoc. Masoli has passed for the most yards per attempt in the league (9.49) and BC’s defence is about the league average in the regard. With Alex Green on IR, it’s likely more of their TDs come through the air as well.
Matt Nichols had a very Matt Nichols game in Week 15, passing for 256 yards and a touchdown versus a fairly beatable Alouettes secondary. The matchup versus Edmonton ranks about the same with the yards per attempt rates being quite comparable. Players can’t expect Nichols to put up numbers like any of the top three in the projections, but at his price, a game with 275 yards and one or two touchdowns is fair value if lineup construction leads to spending up at other positions. Edmonton has allowed the most plays of 30-plus yards this season, so there is the possibility for a little bit of upside as well.
RUNNING BACK
Top Projected:
Andrew Harris, WPG – $7,822
John White, HAM – $3,953
Don Jackson, CGY – $6,565
Punt Single(s):
William Stanback, MTL – $4,554
Martese Jackson, EDM – $3,583
Andrew Harris got off to a great start versus the Alouettes last week before leaving the game early with a lower body injury. He returned to practice Wednesday, so things are looking hopeful. If Harris plays, he’s the clear top play at RB and no one else comes remotely close. Winnipeg averages the most yards per carry this season (5.87), while Edmonton allows the second most yards per carry (5.75) to go along with an above average rate of TDs per carry allowed. If active, Harris is a priority spend on this slate, and if he misses, Kienan LaFrance becomes a solid value at $3,843. Winnipeg’s playoff hopes will live or die with their running game.
The drop in projections after Harris is precipitous, as he projects nearly seven points higher than the second-highest projected RB, while only 3.5 points separate the second spot from the eighth. However, there is also a sizable drop in price as well, as a number of starting RBs this week are still priced as reserves. John White was an adequate Green replacement last week, compiling 16 Fantasy points on 19 carries and two receptions. His 3.3 yards per carry weren’t great, but Hamilton as a team averages 5.51 yards per carry while BC allows 5.05 yards per carry, so a workload like that for White in Week 16 could easily see him crack 20 Fantasy points despite a mean projection closer to 14. Even at that level though, he’s an excellent value, as BC allows the third highest rate of rushing TDs per attempt.
With Alex Green sidelined, John White (pictured) will handle running back duties for the Ticats (The Canadian Press)
Romar Morris has done an exceptional job filling in for the injured Don Jackson over the past month in Calgary, but the Stamps are usually a one-man show in the backfield. If Jackson is fully healthy again following the bye week, he will likely get the start and the vast majority of the workload. Toronto has gone from allowing the second-fewest yards per rush in 2017 (4.84) to allowing the third most in 2018 (5.3), and has been trending downward since mid-season. A rested and healthy Jackson could have a field day on Friday, chewing up clock and yardage in the second half in a game that is not expected to be close with Calgary a -13.5 favourite.
The trade of Tyrell Sutton to BC cemented William Stanback as the Als’ running back going forward. Stanback had his best game as a pro in Week 15, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, versus a reasonably stout Bombers rush defence that allows the third-fewest yards per carry this season (4.98). The Als offence is still the lowest scoring in the league at 15.4 points per game and also runs the fewest offensive plays per game (49.7), so Stanback’s ceiling is somewhat low, but at only $4K he’s still a great value with a defined workload.
If players are looking for another punt option for their flex spot, Martese Jackson looks to be getting the kind of workload in Edmonton that he deserved in Toronto. He should see a couple of carries and receptions each week going forward along with full-time duties in the return game. He’s a poor man’s Chris Rainey in a more powerful offence. Winnipeg allows the third-most yards per kickoff return (23.4), so Jackson should have opportunities to produce on special teams. He’s a boom-or-bust option.
WIDE RECEIVER
Top Projected:
Eric Rogers, CGY – $7790
Duke Williams, EDM – $8836
Brandon Banks, HAM – $10614
Reggie Begelton, CGY – $4709
Luke Tasker, HAM – $8206
Bryant Mitchell, EDM – $5180
Punt Single(s):
Juwan Brescacin, CGY – $2856
Kyran Moore, SSK – $2818
Kenbrell Thompkins, WPG – $2856
Rashad Lawrence, HAM – $2500
Eric Rogers is back at practice this week with the Stamps and looking good. The Argos present the most desirable matchup in the league, allowing the highest rate of yards per catch (9.74) and the highest rate of receiving touchdowns per target. With Kamar Jorden and DaVaris Daniels sidelined, Rogers would instantly become the top target for Mitchell in a week when the Stamps have the highest implied team total on the slate (33.25), all while remaining priced below other team’s top receiving options. Reggie Begelton has performed well in the absence of his running mates but he doesn’t have the same physical skills as Rogers. Nonetheless, Bageltown is open for business and cooking up some delicious value.
As mentioned earlier, the Winnipeg pass defence isn’t nearly the pushovers it’s been in the previous couple of years, allowing only 7.89 yards per reception and the second fewest plays of 30-plus yards this season (16). Duke Williams has the physical tools to dominate any game, but this isn’t the most likely setting for him to excel in. Working in his favour, though, is a pace projection for 57.6 plays – second highest on the slate – and an Eskimos passing game that is still third in the league in yards per attempt and second in passing TDs per attempt. His teammate Bryant Mitchell may be a more attractive play at $5K in Eskimos stacks, but he doesn’t have the same ceiling as Duke.
D’haquille Williams is one of the top-ranked receiver plays going into Week 16 (Adam Gagnon/CFL.ca)
Hamilton’s dynamic duo rounds out the top of the projections with Banks expected to return to game action this weekend. Banks is a difficult spend at over $10K, coming off injury, but certainly still a consideration if eschewing Andrew Harris in favour of values like White and Stanback. Banks may be the most dangerous receiver in CFL fantasy when healthy, having eclipsed 100 receiving yards in eight of his 11 starts this season and compiling six receiving TDs in his last five games. Banks is likely to be low owned at this price, so he presents an interesting contrarian leverage play. His teammate Luke Tasker is also likely dependent on Banks’ health for his own value, as the offence without Banks hasn’t shown nearly as much life. If Banks is back, Tasker is worth consideration as another likely low-owned play due to price.
There aren’t a lot of exciting options in the receiver bargain bin this week, especially considering the values at RB. None of these guys project particularly well, but they do continue to be filthy cheap if players want two expensive RBs. Juwan Brescacin hasn’t shown any consistency this season, but if Rogers sits again this week, his downfield abilities may be able to make the most of his three or four targets versus Toronto. Similarly, Kenbrell Thompkins doesn’t get many looks in a run-first Winnipeg offence, but the Eskimos’ secondary allows the most big plays in the league, making Thompkins a fly or fry deep threat option on the cheap. Kyran Moore has a similar outlook as a receiver, but his opportunities as a kick returner provide him with a little more upside, as Montreal allows the second-most yards per kick return this year (23.5). Rashad Lawrence, on the other hand, doesn’t return kicks and hasn’t flashed any big-play ability, but PPR scoring provides him some reasonably safe value, while he averages six targets per game in the injury-depleted Ticats receiving corps.
DEFENCE
Top Projected:
Saskatchewan Roughriders – $6,019
Calgary Stampeders – $5,058
Montreal Alouettes – $3,200
There are a number of different ways to attack the slate on defence, but the top option has to be the Roughriders’ big play defence facing off against the low-scoring and turnover-prone offence of the Als, led by Manziel. The Riders are first in forced two and outs (78), second in forced turnovers (32), and third in sacks (31), while Montreal is second in offensive two and outs (76), fourth in turnovers (28), and first in sacks allowed (48). There should certainly be opportunities for the Riders’ pass rush to create opportunities for defensive scores.
The Stampeders matchup is similarly appealing in terms of a points allowed and turnovers standpoint, as they lead the league in forced turnovers (37) and points allowed (20.7) while the struggling Argos offence has given up the most turnovers in the league (30), while scoring the second fewest points per game (22.1). Calgary’s ability to turn turnovers into points can’t be overlooked.
If players are looking for a cheap defence, though, Montreal may be the best option. They have noticeably improved their play over the past month and although they do not have a good defence, the Roughriders have a notably bad offence. The Riders score the second fewest offensive points per game (19.6), so if the Montreal offence can minimize mistakes this has a 19-13 kind of final score well within its sights. The Als defence could be a cheap source of Fantasy production.
STACKS
Mike Reilly > Bryant Mitchell
As mentioned earlier, it’s tough to justify a Reilly/Williams stack at over $22K, but Bryant Mitchell continues to consistently produce as the Eskimos’ second option in the passing game with Derel Walker on the shelf. If going the Reilly route, Mitchell is the most sensible stacking option this week.
Bo Levi Mitchell > Eric Rogers, Reggie Begelton
It’s probably not possible to have too much exposure to the Calgary offence this week versus Toronto, especially with Rogers and Begelton both quite reasonably priced. Being able to stack these three versus the Argos for nearly the same price as just Reilly and Williams will make this an optimal, but likely highly owned stack.
WEEK 16 FANTASY PROJECTIONS
QUARTERBACK
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Pass Attempts | Rush Carries |
| Mike REILLY | QB | $14,000.00 | EDM | WPG | 30.12 | 2.15 | 37.01 | 5.90 |
| Bo Levi MITCHELL | QB | $10,027.00 | CGY | TOR | 26.54 | 2.65 | 33.55 | 0.64 |
| Jeremiah MASOLI | QB | $11,163.00 | HAM | BC | 23.42 | 2.10 | 35.22 | 4.90 |
| Matt NICHOLS | QB | $6,675.00 | WPG | EDM | 18.12 | 2.71 | 31.66 | 2.10 |
| Jonathon JENNINGS | QB | $6,933.00 | BC | HAM | 15.07 | 2.17 | 31.89 | 4.80 |
| Zach COLLAROS | QB | $5,323.00 | SSK | MTL | 14.31 | 2.69 | 33.31 | 1.50 |
| Mcleod BETHEL-THOMPSON | QB | $8,463.00 | TOR | CGY | 12.14 | 1.43 | 34.22 | 1.40 |
| Johnny MANZIEL | QB | $6,000.00 | MTL | SSK | 10.79 | 1.80 | 29.39 | 3.40 |
| James FRANKLIN | QB | $7,282.00 | TOR | CGY | 4.66 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 3.90 |
| Chris STREVELER | QB | $6,659.00 | WPG | EDM | 4.29 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 3.60 |
| Cody FAJARDO | QB | $5,000.00 | BC | HAM | 1.12 | 0.22 | 1.30 |
RUNNING BACK
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| Andrew HARRIS | RB | $7,822.00 | WPG | EDM | 21.97 | 2.81 | 13.50 | 5.30 | ||
| John White IV | RB | $3,953.00 | HAM | BC | 14.60 | 3.69 | 14.90 | 2.40 | ||
| C.J. GABLE | RB | $7,260.00 | EDM | WPG | 14.27 | 1.97 | 11.90 | 2.90 | ||
| James WILDER JR. | RB | $8,309.00 | TOR | CGY | 14.12 | 1.70 | 11.10 | 4.90 | ||
| Don JACKSON | RB | $6,565.00 | CGY | TOR | 13.66 | 2.08 | 14.80 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeremiah JOHNSON | RB | $6,879.00 | BC | HAM | 12.56 | 1.83 | 9.20 | 2.80 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Chris RAINEY | RB | $5,753.00 | BC | HAM | 11.22 | 1.95 | 2.50 | 2.60 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| William STANBACK | RB | $4,554.00 | MTL | SSK | 11.07 | 2.43 | 11.80 | 2.90 | 0.00 | |
| Tre MASON | RB | $3,884.00 | SSK | MTL | 9.02 | 2.32 | 12.20 | 2.80 | ||
| Marcus THIGPEN | RB | $6,255.00 | SSK | MTL | 8.56 | 1.37 | 4.90 | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Martese JACKSON | RB | $3,583.00 | TOR | CGY | 8.34 | 2.33 | 2.10 | 3.30 | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Stefan LOGAN | RB | $3,107.00 | MTL | SSK | 6.27 | 2.02 | 0.30 | 0.80 | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Terry WILLIAMS | RB | $4,316.00 | CGY | TOR | 5.79 | 1.34 | 2.10 | 0.90 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Declan CROSS | RB | $2,500.00 | TOR | CGY | 4.37 | 1.75 | 0.00 | 2.40 | ||
| Ryder STONE | RB | $2,500.00 | MTL | SSK | 2.21 | 0.88 | 1.30 | 1.20 | ||
| Kienan LAFRANCE | RB | $3,843.00 | WPG | EDM | 1.31 | 0.34 | 1.30 | 0.30 |
WIDE RECEIVER
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| Eric ROGERS | WR | $7,790.00 | CGY | TOR | 21.23 | 2.73 | 0.00 | 7.20 | ||
| D’haquille WILLIAMS | WR | $8,836.00 | EDM | WPG | 20.14 | 2.28 | 0.00 | 9.30 | ||
| Brandon BANKS | WR | $10,614.00 | HAM | BC | 19.32 | 1.82 | 0.00 | 8.70 | 0.00 | |
| Reggie BEGELTON | WR | $4,709.00 | CGY | TOR | 18.10 | 3.84 | 0.00 | 8.40 | ||
| Luke TASKER | WR | $8,206.00 | HAM | BC | 17.44 | 2.12 | 0.00 | 8.10 | ||
| Marken MICHEL | WR | $5,833.00 | CGY | TOR | 14.57 | 2.50 | 0.03 | 6.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bryant MITCHELL | WR | $5,180.00 | EDM | WPG | 14.34 | 2.77 | 0.00 | 7.80 | ||
| Bryan BURNHAM | WR | $7,575.00 | BC | HAM | 14.16 | 1.87 | 0.03 | 7.50 | ||
| Darvin ADAMS | WR | $6,547.00 | WPG | EDM | 12.46 | 1.90 | 0.03 | 6.50 | ||
| Jordan WILLIAMS-LAMBERT | WR | $4,689.00 | SSK | MTL | 11.95 | 2.55 | 0.00 | 6.10 | ||
| DeVier POSEY | WR | $3,833.00 | BC | HAM | 11.61 | 3.03 | 0.00 | 6.50 | ||
| Naaman ROOSEVELT | WR | $5,416.00 | SSK | MTL | 11.33 | 2.09 | 0.00 | 6.90 | ||
| Kenny STAFFORD | WR | $4,478.00 | EDM | WPG | 10.40 | 2.32 | 0.00 | 5.90 | ||
| S.J. GREEN | WR | $6,729.00 | TOR | CGY | 10.12 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 8.90 | ||
| Terrence TOLIVER | WR | $4,341.00 | HAM | BC | 10.04 | 2.31 | 0.00 | 5.40 | ||
| Juwan BRESCACIN | WR | $2,856.00 | CGY | TOR | 9.82 | 3.44 | 0.00 | 4.20 | ||
| Kyran MOORE | WR | $2,818.00 | SSK | MTL | 9.56 | 3.39 | 1.10 | 4.90 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Weston DRESSLER | WR | $4,282.00 | WPG | EDM | 9.40 | 2.20 | 0.00 | 5.70 | ||
| Kenbrell THOMPKINS | WR | $2,856.00 | WPG | EDM | 9.27 | 3.25 | 0.00 | 4.20 | ||
| Ricky Collins Jr. | WR | $5,114.00 | BC | HAM | 8.92 | 1.74 | 0.00 | 6.30 | ||
| Mike JONES | WR | $3,755.00 | HAM | BC | 8.87 | 2.36 | 0.00 | 4.60 | ||
| Armanti EDWARDS | WR | $5,793.00 | TOR | CGY | 8.81 | 1.52 | 0.00 | 5.90 | ||
| B.J. CUNNINGHAM | WR | $4,774.00 | MTL | SSK | 8.80 | 1.84 | 0.05 | 6.30 | ||
| Vidal HAZELTON | WR | $3,609.00 | EDM | WPG | 8.56 | 2.37 | 0.00 | 5.10 | ||
| Rashad LAWRENCE | WR | $2,500.00 | HAM | BC | 8.51 | 3.40 | 0.00 | 5.70 | ||
| Geno LEWIS | WR | $3,063.00 | MTL | SSK | 8.40 | 2.74 | 0.10 | 5.00 | ||
| Nic DEMSKI | WR | $4,201.00 | WPG | EDM | 8.13 | 1.94 | 0.60 | 4.50 | 0.00 | |
| Shaq EVANS | WR | $2,745.00 | SSK | MTL | 7.53 | 2.74 | 0.00 | 5.90 | 0.00 | |
| Drew WOLITARSKY | WR | $3,392.00 | WPG | EDM | 6.75 | 1.99 | 0.00 | 3.90 | ||
| Ernest JACKSON | WR | $3,176.00 | MTL | SSK | 5.71 | 1.80 | 0.03 | 5.00 | ||
| Adarius BOWMAN | WR | $2,945.00 | MTL | SSK | 4.97 | 1.69 | 0.00 | 5.10 | ||
| Llevi NOEL | WR | $2,685.00 | TOR | CGY | 4.75 | 1.77 | 0.00 | 4.10 | ||
| Natey ADJEI | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | WPG | 4.41 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 2.30 | ||
| Cory WATSON | WR | $2,500.00 | BC | HAM | 4.07 | 1.63 | 0.00 | 2.50 | ||
| Joshua STANFORD | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | MTL | 3.08 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 2.90 | ||
| Duron CARTER | WR | $3,371.00 | TOR | CGY | 2.97 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 2.10 | ||
| Rodney SMITH | WR | $2,500.00 | TOR | CGY | 2.82 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 2.60 | ||
| Lemar DURANT | WR | $2,760.00 | CGY | TOR | 2.37 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 4.10 | ||
| Malcolm WILLIAMS | WR | $2,500.00 | TOR | CGY | 2.37 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 2.20 | ||
| Daniel PETERMANN | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | EDM | 2.18 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 1.20 | ||
| George JOHNSON | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | SSK | 1.21 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 3.10 | ||
| Samuel GIGUERE | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | WPG | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
