September 12, 2018

Start vs Sit: Odds in favour of Riders’ defence

Jason Halstead, CFL.ca

Week 14 of the TSN CFL Fantasy football season could be the most challenging to date. With only three games on tap, filling out the lineup becomes tricky when one considers whether to stack Tiger-Cats in hopes of catching a reeling Stampeders defence off-balance or if the Alouettes offence will continue to show life.

Does BC have Travis Lulay available? Can Zach Collaros finally put together a week that makes him Fantasy-viable? Can the Trevor Harris of 2017 please come back?

Those questions and others can be solved as we look at Week 14’s starts and sits.

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Lions’ Bryan Burnham has scored touchdowns in three straight games while also scoring at least 14.3 points for Fantasy owners. (Johany Jutras, CFL.ca)

BC (4-6-0) at Montreal (3-8-0)

Friday | 7:30 p.m. ET

Start: Bryan Burnham, WR, Lions, $6,332 Salary

Burnham has scored majors in three straight games while also scoring at least 14.3 Fantasy points in three of his last four games. Regardless of whether Lulay ($6,646) or Jonathon Jennings ($6,465) gets the start at pivot, Burnham should draw double-digit targets against an Alouettes pass defence that allows a league-high 329.4 yards per game and 23 touchdowns in the air. The Lions’ passing game manages just 244 yards per game, yet they have 20 completions of better than 30 yards, with four of those going to Burnham, who is the undisputed lead receiver in BC in with Emmanuel Arceneaux out for the season. Burnham is reasonably priced and is in a position to give Fantasy users 16-18 points this week.

Sit: Antonio Pipkin, QB, Alouettes, $6,721 Salary

Without question, Pipkin has brought some juice to the Montreal offence, which has averaged 23 points per game in his three starts. His running ability makes him an intriguing Fantasy play, as Pipkin has recorded four majors while averaging 6.8 yards per carry on the ground. However, he has thrown just one touchdown and has been intercepted four times. Counting on Pipkin to continue averaging double digits in his rushing production is a high-risk gamble when one considers he has a paltry 53.9 QBR and faces a Lions pass defence that has allowed just 16 passes of better than 30 yards. Expect BC to contain Pipkin’s running and force him to defeat them with his arm. Stay. Away.

Calgary (9-2-0) at Hamilton (6-5-0)

Saturday | 4:00 p.m. ET

Start: Romar Morris, RB, Stampeders, $4,615 Salary

If Don Jackson ($6,517) can’t answer the call, Morris gets a chance to run against the league’s second-worst run defence, as Hamilton allows 116.5 yards per game on the ground. Jackson had success against the Ticats in Week 1 when he rushed for 87 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, but what makes Morris dangerous is his pass-catching ability that came to life with two touchdown receptions in last week’s loss to Edmonton. Don’t draft Morris with the expectation of the 44 Fantasy points he had last Saturday, but if Calgary pivot Bo Levi Mitchell ($9,919) can poke a hole or two in Hamilton’s top-ranked pass defence, then Morris will see openings against a defence that gives up more than six yards per carry and 11 total scores on the ground.

Sit: Terrence Toliver, WR, Tiger-Cats, $4,672 Salary

Jeremiah Masoli ($11,659) has been red-hot in the past three games but Toliver has been silent while Brandon Banks ($10,516) and Luke Tasker ($7,661) have feasted. Toliver did not have a catch in last Saturday’s win over the Argonauts and has not had a game of at least 10 Fantasy points since Week 4. Calgary is second to Hamilton in passing yards allowed and has given up just nine touchdown passes this season. With Banks and Tasker gobbling up targets at a high rate along with Alex Green ($9,336) becoming a focal part of the offence, the numbers strongly suggest avoiding Toliver until Masoli can offer him more than the targeting equal of breadcrumbs.

Ottawa (6-5-0) at Saskatchewan (7-4-0)

Saturday | 9:30 p.m. ET

Start: Roughriders Defence, $6,054 Salary

Ten of Saskatchewan’s 24 touchdowns this season have come from their defence and special teams, two of which came in last week’s Banjo Bowl victory over Winnipeg. The Riders also lead the league with 29 sacks and are second with 31 forced turnovers. On the other side of the coin, Ottawa has committed 24 turnovers and shown little of their quick-strike potential, producing a league-low 16 big plays this season. Saskatchewan’s D continues to be the reason why they have put themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt despite an inconsistent offence.

Sit: Trevor Harris, QB, REDBLACKS, $8,161 Salary

Harris has a combined 18.5 Fantasy points in his last two games. After tying Edmonton’s Mike Reilly for the league lead in touchdown passes last season, Harris has only 11 majors and only three games of multiple scoring tosses. Even with Diontae Spencer ($7,897), Greg Ellingson ($6,415) and Brad Sinopoli ($6,686) at his disposal, Harris has only 12 completions of better than 30 yards while completing just 28.4 per cent of his attempts of 20 yards or more. Slump? Reversal of fortune? Either way, it’s best not to play Harris until he can figure it out.