Adam Gagnon/CFL.ca
As was the story in Week 11, the top projected options each draw difficult matchups in Week 12. It makes for somewhat easier decisions as to where to pay up for top projected performers but it also makes it a little more difficult to climb to the top of the leaderboard with a unique lineup.
Players with an eye on the top prize will have to pick and choose where to take their risks.
QUARTERBACK
Top Projected
Mike Reilly, EDM – $14,000
Trevor Harris, OTT – $8,865
Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY – $9,513
Punt Single
Antonio Pipkin, MTL – $6,000
Reilly tops the quarterback projections, but it’s again with an asterisk. Last week the hesitation was due to a terrible pace matchup versus the Ticats in a matchup between the two defences allowing the fewest plays per game in the league. If not for a ridiculously efficient second quarter, the game would have been a disaster for Reilly. The matchup versus the Stampeders this week is still tough on the pace side but the even more prohibitive aspect is that Calgary allows the fewest passing yards per attempt (6.42) and the lowest rate of passing TDs per attempt – nearly one third of the league average – having allowed only five total touchdowns through the air in nine games. It’s tough to justify $14,000 this week.
Harris comes in at an over $5,000 savings in salary over Reilly with a very similar projection. Ottawa has passed for only half the number of touchdowns as Edmonton this season, having settled for field goals far too often, but the matchup with the Alouettes is the most enticing one possible for opposing QBs. Montreal allows the second most yards per pass attempt (9.11) and the second highest rate of passing TDs per attempt having allowed 23 passing touchdowns so far. That’s a 62 per cent higher rate than league average. Montreal also allows the most plays per game to opposing offences and that projects Ottawa to run over 70 offensive plays on Friday. If Harris and the REDBLACKS offence can create even a marginal increase in red zone scoring rates, he should be the top Fantasy QB this week.
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Mitchell had his best game of the season last week, as the Bombers allowed over 360 passing yards for a second straight week. The matchup with the Eskimos on Labour Day is somewhat surprisingly easier as the Esks allow nearly a yard more per pass to opposing offences while also allowing a 67 per cent higher rate of touchdowns per pass attempt than the Bombers. The Edmonton secondary is the third most generous in the season to this point while allowing the most plays of 30-plus yards (21). Calgary has created the most plays of 30-plus yards (26), so Mitchell may be the play again.
Pipkin was quietly only one tenth of a point behind Reilly last week, putting up over 300 passing yards while rushing for 29 yards and two scores. He’s a difficult player to stack with as it seems the Als are apt to let him run the ball in for TDs rather than passing it, so be careful with lineup construction. The other knock on Pipkin is that in his two starts, he has faced the two defences that give up them most yards per pass in the league outside of his own defence. Ottawa is a more difficult matchup and given that Johnny Manziel has passed concussion protocol, Pipkin isn’t even guaranteed to start.
RUNNING BACK
Top Projected
Andrew Harris, WPG – $9,553
William Powel, OTT – $8,360
James Wilder Jr., TOR – $8,729
Punt Single
Ryder Stone, MTL – $2,500
Harris is still atop the RB projections but, like Reilly, he faces a second straight extremely difficult matchup. The projection of nearly 20 points is propped up by his early season touchdown rates but those will be difficult to come by in a matchup with the Riders, who allow the fewest yards per carry and the second lowest rate of rushing TDs per carry. The Bombers usually struggle in the Labour Day Classic in Regina and this season their recent downward trend isn’t encouraging for those considering Harris in their lineups.
Like Trevor Harris, Powell is the beneficiary of a significant increase in workload this week, given the Als allows over 70 plays per game to opposing offences. Powell projects for the most carries of any RB this week (18.5) by a fairly wide margin. The Als rush defence is actually better than league average in terms of yards per rush and rushing touchdown rates but their Week 9 matchup in Ottawa saw Powell rack up rushing yards down the stretch, including a late touchdown, and the Week 12 rematch isn’t projected to be any different.
Trevor Harris should see plenty of scoring opportunities in Week 12 vs. the Als (The Canadian Press)
Wilder’s Week 11 performance was disappointing to Fantasy owners, as the Argos offence could never really get on track in a game in which they were heavily favoured to beat the struggling Als. This week’s matchup is a little bit of a conundrum. Working in Wilder’s favour is the Ticats’ rush defence that allows a league-high 6.3 yards per carry, but working against him is his own team’s league worst 4.51 yards per carry average coupled with a below average rate of TDs per rush attempt allowed by Hamilton. Also working against him is an implied team total of only 22 points which is second lowest on the slate. It’s a risky week to consider Wilder at this price.
The biggest bargain at the position this week is Stone, who is expected to get the start for the Als in the backfield with both Tyrell Sutton and William Stanback lost to injury. The price tag is extremely cheap but Ottawa allows the third fewest yards per carry and a below average rate of touchdowns per carry. Given that Pipkin’s legs appear to be the red zone weapon of choice for Montreal right now, the chances of Stone scoring are even lower. Frankly, if Manziel does get the start at QB this week over Pipkin, Stone’s value may decrease even further as the whole offence’s projections take a hit. Stone doesn’t need to do much to meet value but he very well may not be able to do so.
WIDE RECEIVER
Top Projected
Kamar Jorden, CGY – $9,596
Diontae Spencer, OTT – $8,398
Brad Sinopoli, OTT – $7,544
Greg Ellingson, OTT – $6,196
Brandon Banks, HAM – $8,587
Jalen Saunders, HAM – $7,214
Punt Singles
Jordan Williams-Lambert, SSK – $3,843
Dominique Rhymes, OTT – $2,500
R.J. Harris, OTT – $2,855
Kenbrell Thompkins, WPG – $2,500
Shaq Evans, SSK – $2,500
Coming off a record-setting Week 11 performance versus Winnipeg, it’s not too surprising to see Jorden atop the receiver projections again in a matchup versus Edmonton. Since the loss of Eric Rogers to injury, Jorden has been cemented as the top option in the Stampeders receiving corps. As mentioned earlier, Edmonton allows the third most receiving yards per attempt and has allowed the most plays of 30-plus yards to this point so it may be another big day for Jorden.
The next three receivers in the projections are all REDBLACKS that wind up being the beneficiaries of a matchup with the Alouettes. This presents difficult choices to be made as it’s nearly impossible for all three top projected receivers on the team to have big games, especially given the top two value plays at WR are also REDBLACKS (Harris and Rhymes). Montreal allows the most plays per game to opposing offences (63.5), second most yards per reception (9.1), and the highest rate of touchdowns per reception with 23 total given up so far. Spencer gets the benefit of having return duties while Ellingson has been the most recently productive with 19 catches for 210 yards in his past two games. Sinopoli has been trending downward on the other hand, as he hasn’t cracked 100 yards receiving since July 20 versus BC. Players will certainly want some Ottawa receivers in their lineup but choosing which ones will be difficult.
After setting a franchise record, Kamar Jorden could be in for another big day Monday (The Canadian Press)
The Hamilton receiving corps makes up the next chunk of receivers in the projections as they get to face a Toronto secondary allowing the most yards per reception (9.4) and the third highest rate of touchdowns per pass attempt this season. Banks, Saunders, and Tasker each seem to have a good shot to go over the 100-yard receiving mark but the lack of receiving TDs holds their projections back from the Ottawa group. Hamilton continues to score their TDs on the ground this season at a 4:3 mark versus a 5:7 mark in 2017. If Jeremiah Masoli can throw more than two touchdown passes this week — which he’s managed only twice this season — Banks, Saunders and Tasker could certainly exceed their projections.
The bargain bin is again brimming with options at near minimum prices with the aforementioned Rhymes and Harris popping as the biggest values in their matchup with Montreal. Williams-Lambert and Evans also show as good values for their price tags but the overall production of the Saskatchewan passing game limits their upside somewhat. Recent weeks have shown vulnerabilities in the Winnipeg secondary but their overall season numbers are still strong. On the other side of the field in the Labour Day Classic in Regina, Thompkins also pops as a value at his price tag despite the matchup with the Riders imposing defence.
DEFENCE
Saskatchewan Roughriders – $5,742
Ottawa REDBLACKS – $3,517
The Winnipeg offence has struggled quite a bit over the past two weeks and is third in turnovers allowed (21) and two and outs (50) to this point. Those are troubling trends going into a matchup with the Riders defence that has forced the third most turnovers (23) and is tied with the Eskimos for the league lead in sacks (23). The Riders appear to be trending up as the Bombers are trending down just in time for the Labour Day Classic in Regina. It’s an expensive unit to roster, but the upside is immense.
The bargain defensive unit in play is the REDBLACKS who get to face an Alouettes offence averaging a league low 16.9 points per game while allowing the most sacks (31), most two and outs (62), and third most turnovers (21). The Ottawa defence isn’t particularly noteworthy in any of these counting stats but the matchup at this price makes them an interesting play.
STACKS
Harris > The whole REDBLACKS receiving corps
Each of Ottawa’s receivers projects really well in their matchup with Montreal. The difficulty will be in choosing which ones to roster. Odds are that having anything over two receivers from a given offence will lead to diminishing returns. Ellingson appears to be the best bargain of their top three options, while Rhymes has been the biggest bargain contributor of late.
Bo Levi Mitchell > Jorden
This stack turned out pretty well in Week 11 and while it’s not wise to chase points, the consistent workload here along with the matchup with Edmonton makes the Calgary passing stack a good building block again in Week 12.
Masoli > Tasker, Toliver
It’s contrarian stack certainly but there’s enough reason to believe that the matchup with Toronto, coupled with likely regression towards the mean for Hamilton passing touchdowns, could result in a big game for the Ticats passing attack. Banks and Saunders are both overpriced at current rates but Tasker and Toliver are both relative bargains with Chris Williams lost to injury.
WEEK 12 PROJECTIONS
QUARTERBACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Pass Attempts | Rush Carries |
| Mike REILLY | QB | $14,000.00 | EDM | CGY | 24.59 | 1.76 | 34.14 | 5.80 |
| Trevor HARRIS | QB | $8,865.00 | OTT | MTL | 22.77 | 2.57 | 43.70 | 1.90 |
| Bo Levi MITCHELL | QB | $9,513.00 | CGY | EDM | 21.50 | 2.26 | 31.71 | 0.60 |
| Jeremiah MASOLI | QB | $10,145.00 | HAM | TOR | 21.43 | 2.11 | 35.15 | 3.50 |
| Matt NICHOLS | QB | $8,185.00 | WPG | SSK | 18.13 | 2.22 | 32.16 | 1.90 |
| Antonio PIPKIN | QB | $6,000.00 | MTL | OTT | 16.53 | 2.76 | 29.39 | 5.30 |
| Mcleod BETHEL-THOMPSON | QB | $6,694.00 | TOR | HAM | 16.19 | 2.42 | 32.90 | 1.90 |
| Zach COLLAROS | QB | $5,211.00 | SSK | WPG | 13.40 | 2.57 | 32.37 | 0.90 |
| Chris STREVELER | QB | $6,000.00 | WPG | SSK | 4.36 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 4.40 |
| James FRANKLIN | QB | $7,315.00 | TOR | HAM | 2.47 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 2.10 |
| Dominique DAVIS | QB | $5,000.00 | OTT | MTL | 0.31 | 0.06 | 2.10 |
RUNNING BACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| Andrew HARRIS | RB | $9,553.00 | WPG | SSK | 19.43 | 2.03 | 13.10 | 6.10 | ||
| William POWELL | RB | $8,360.00 | OTT | MTL | 18.68 | 2.23 | 18.50 | 4.10 | ||
| James WILDER JR. | RB | $8,729.00 | TOR | HAM | 16.03 | 1.84 | 11.50 | 4.70 | ||
| Alex GREEN | RB | $7,548.00 | HAM | TOR | 15.12 | 2.00 | 14.30 | 2.90 | ||
| Don JACKSON | RB | $6,424.00 | CGY | EDM | 13.10 | 2.04 | 13.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| C.J. GABLE | RB | $6,872.00 | EDM | CGY | 12.86 | 1.87 | 13.40 | 3.30 | ||
| Tre MASON | RB | $3,590.00 | SSK | WPG | 11.26 | 3.14 | 13.00 | 3.30 | ||
| Ryder STONE | RB | $2,500.00 | MTL | OTT | 8.92 | 3.57 | 9.60 | 2.60 | 0.00 | |
| Stefan LOGAN | RB | $3,342.00 | MTL | OTT | 7.92 | 2.37 | 0.90 | 1.40 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Terry WILLIAMS | RB | $4,420.00 | CGY | EDM | 7.28 | 1.65 | 3.10 | 0.90 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Christion JONES | RB | $3,192.00 | SSK | WPG | 6.94 | 2.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Martese JACKSON | RB | $3,529.00 | TOR | HAM | 6.07 | 1.72 | 1.90 | 0.90 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Cameron MARSHALL | RB | $5,050.00 | SSK | WPG | 5.84 | 1.16 | 5.40 | 2.10 | ||
| Sean THOMAS ERLINGTON | RB | $3,000.00 | HAM | TOR | 5.46 | 1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | |
| Declan CROSS | RB | $2,599.00 | TOR | HAM | 5.16 | 1.99 | 0.00 | 2.40 |
RECEIVERS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| Kamar JORDEN | WR | $9,596.00 | CGY | EDM | 21.98 | 2.29 | 0.10 | 8.30 | 0.00 | |
| Diontae SPENCER | WR | $8,398.00 | OTT | MTL | 19.99 | 2.38 | 0.07 | 7.90 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Brad SINOPOLI | WR | $7,544.00 | OTT | MTL | 19.36 | 2.57 | 0.00 | 9.50 | ||
| Greg ELLINGSON | WR | $6,196.00 | OTT | MTL | 17.19 | 2.77 | 0.00 | 9.70 | ||
| Brandon BANKS | WR | $8,587.00 | HAM | TOR | 16.78 | 1.95 | 0.03 | 8.10 | 0.00 | |
| Jalen SAUNDERS | WR | $7,214.00 | HAM | TOR | 16.46 | 2.28 | 0.04 | 7.60 | ||
| D’haquille WILLIAMS | WR | $8,158.00 | EDM | CGY | 15.89 | 1.95 | 0.00 | 9.00 | ||
| Luke TASKER | WR | $6,798.00 | HAM | TOR | 15.76 | 2.32 | 0.00 | 7.70 | ||
| Derel WALKER | WR | $8,537.00 | EDM | CGY | 15.07 | 1.77 | 0.15 | 8.10 | ||
| DaVaris DANIELS | WR | $6,250.00 | CGY | EDM | 14.67 | 2.35 | 0.10 | 6.60 | ||
| Darvin ADAMS | WR | $6,750.00 | WPG | SSK | 13.42 | 1.99 | 0.04 | 7.20 | ||
| Terrence TOLIVER | WR | $5,408.00 | HAM | TOR | 12.36 | 2.29 | 0.00 | 6.00 | ||
| Jordan WILLIAMS-LAMBERT | WR | $3,843.00 | SSK | WPG | 12.17 | 3.17 | 0.00 | 6.50 | ||
| Marken MICHEL | WR | $5,698.00 | CGY | EDM | 12.06 | 2.12 | 0.05 | 6.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Naaman ROOSEVELT | WR | $4,805.00 | SSK | WPG | 11.35 | 2.36 | 0.00 | 7.10 | ||
| S.J. GREEN | WR | $6,449.00 | TOR | HAM | 11.26 | 1.75 | 0.00 | 8.70 | ||
| Dominique RHYMES | WR | $2,500.00 | OTT | MTL | 11.14 | 4.46 | 0.00 | 5.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| R.J. HARRIS | WR | $2,855.00 | OTT | MTL | 11.06 | 3.87 | 0.00 | 5.10 | ||
| Kenbrell THOMPKINS | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | SSK | 10.03 | 4.01 | 0.00 | 5.40 | ||
| B.J. CUNNINGHAM | WR | $5,080.00 | MTL | OTT | 9.99 | 1.97 | 0.05 | 6.90 | ||
| Nic DEMSKI | WR | $5,598.00 | WPG | SSK | 9.91 | 1.77 | 1.50 | 5.00 | ||
| Kenny STAFFORD | WR | $4,175.00 | EDM | CGY | 9.62 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 6.30 | ||
| Shaq EVANS | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | WPG | 8.77 | 3.51 | 0.00 | 6.70 | 0.00 | |
| Armanti EDWARDS | WR | $4,764.00 | TOR | HAM | 8.22 | 1.72 | 0.00 | 4.80 | ||
| Geno LEWIS | WR | $3,097.00 | MTL | OTT | 8.15 | 2.63 | 0.14 | 4.70 | ||
| Drew WOLITARSKY | WR | $2,760.00 | WPG | SSK | 7.05 | 2.55 | 0.00 | 3.90 | ||
| Vidal HAZELTON | WR | $3,294.00 | EDM | CGY | 7.02 | 2.13 | 0.00 | 4.90 | ||
| Mike JONES | WR | $2,500.00 | HAM | TOR | 6.17 | 2.47 | 0.00 | 3.80 | ||
| Adarius BOWMAN | WR | $2,606.00 | MTL | OTT | 5.82 | 2.24 | 0.00 | 5.70 | ||
| Ernest JACKSON | WR | $2,948.00 | MTL | OTT | 5.82 | 1.97 | 0.05 | 5.00 | ||
| Rodney SMITH | WR | $2,500.00 | TOR | HAM | 5.80 | 2.32 | 0.00 | 4.20 | ||
| Juwan BRESCACIN | WR | $2,500.00 | CGY | EDM | 5.68 | 2.27 | 0.00 | 2.80 | ||
| Devon BAILEY | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | WPG | 5.37 | 2.15 | 0.00 | 2.30 | ||
| Jamill SMITH | WR | $2,751.00 | EDM | CGY | 4.51 | 1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Joshua STANFORD | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | WPG | 3.86 | 1.55 | 0.00 | 3.30 | ||
| Llevi NOEL | WR | $2,500.00 | TOR | HAM | 3.54 | 1.42 | 0.00 | 2.70 | ||
| Natey ADJEI | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | CGY | 3.44 | 1.38 | 0.00 | 2.50 | ||
| Lemar DURANT | WR | $2,910.00 | CGY | EDM | 3.40 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 4.50 | ||
| Chris WILLIAMS | WR | $4,346.00 | HAM | TOR | 2.94 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | |
| Mario ALFORD | WR | $2,500.00 | TOR | HAM | 2.89 | 1.15 | 0.00 | 4.50 | 2.00 | |
| George JOHNSON | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | OTT | 1.85 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 3.10 |
