Start vs. Sit: Many factors leaning in favour of Sutton

Brandon C. Williams

CFL.ca

Week 8 will offer a glimpse of what the rest of the season could look like in an East Division that will see one, if not two, new starting quarterbacks. With Ottawa being the only team with a winning record, the rearranging of deck chairs could go a long way toward whether the defending champion Argonauts and the struggling Alouettes can build a path to the playoffs despite 1-5 records.

Players in TSN’s CFL Fantasy football might be able to find a gem or two from the East. A more likely scenario is those talents which have dealt with sluggish starts will find themselves back into the form many users envisioned when the season began.

There’s only one way to find out who to start and who to sit…

Ottawa (4-2-0) at Toronto (1-5-0)

Thursday | 7:00 p.m. ET

Start: Trevor Harris, QB, REDBLACKS, $8,137 Salary

Aside from a 342-yard, three-TD effort against the Alouettes in Week 4, Harris hasn’t looked like the quarterback who threw for 4,679 yards and 30 majors last season. Sure, playing two games against the Stampeders’ defence won’t do wonders for any pivot’s Fantasy numbers, but Harris had three games this season in which he has failed to throw a touchdown pass. So why play him here? Because the Argonauts’ pass defence is the tonic Harris needs. Toronto has given up 11 completions of 30 yards or better while allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete a league-worst 71.2 per cent of their passes. The Argos are also last in opponents’ average pass (9.3), which sets up Harris and struggling receivers Greg Ellingson ($6,281) and Diontae Spencer ($6,155) for an evening of Fantasy redemption.

Sit: S.J. Green, WR, Argonauts, $5,344 Salary

Green’s numbers would look much worse if his Week 5 totals of 10 catches and 131 yards against the Eskimos were stripped away. The All-Star wideout has 28 receptions but has just 285 yards and — worse yet — does not have a touchdown grab, a far cry from the 10 majors he reeled in last year. Toronto’s quarterbacks have combined for two touchdown passes this season, which is one more than Winnipeg receiver Darvin Adams has thrown for. Toronto is averaging just 212.3 yards per game and faces an Ottawa defence that has allowed a league-low 60.9 per cent completion rate. New starting quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson ($6,000) does have the arm strength to exploit the REDBLACKS’ penchant for giving up big passing plays, as Ottawa is tied with Edmonton with 13 completions allowed of 30-plus yards. Still, it’s too much to expect Bethel-Thompson to immediately become the second coming of Ricky Ray.

Saskatchewan (3-3-0) at Edmonton (4-2-0)

Thursday | 10:00 p.m. ET

Start: Marcus Thigpen, RB, Roughriders, $5,045 Salary

The common denominator in both Eskimos’ losses? The inability to stop the run. Edmonton allows 130 yards per game on the ground, eighth in the league while also allowing 5.8 yards per carry. Those numbers play well for the Saskatchewan ground game, ranked second in the league with 122.2 yards per game. The release of Jerome Messam on Monday frees up a host of touches in what was a crowded Roughriders backfield, with most of those going to Thigpen, who averages eight yards per carry. The Eskimos are tied with the Bombers with a league-worst nine rushing majors allowed, so while Saskatchewan quarterback Brandon Bridge ($5,432) continues to struggle, Thigpen’s explosive running skills could be the foundation for the Riders to keep things close against Mike Reilly ($14,000) and league’s top offence.

Sit: Naaman Roosevelt, WR, Roughriders, $5,548 Salary

Like Green in Toronto, Roosevelt, one of the league’s premier receivers, is hampered by below-average quarterback play. The Riders average a league-worst 191 passing yards per game and have managed only seven passing plays of better than 30 yards. The offence has a CFL-low six touchdowns, and it’s hard to envision Bridge lighting up a much-improved Eskimos pass defence that is third in the league in fewest yards allowed in the air (239.8) and second in opponents’ completion percentage. Roosevelt has just 21 catches for 237 yards and has eclipsed more than 43 yards receiving just once this season. Users may have to wait until Zach Collaros returns in mid-August before reviving hope in slotting Roosevelt in their lineups.

The anticipated return of Duron Carter to the Riders offence could make for a loss in production from Namaan Roosevelt. (The Canadian Press)

Hamilton (2-3-0) at Montreal (1-5-0)

Friday | 7:30 p.m. ET

Start: Tyrell Sutton, RB, Alouettes, $6,533 Salary

Sutton’s numbers aren’t impressive, yet he gets a Tiger-Cats run defence ranked seventh in yards allowed with 126.8 yards per game. While Sutton’s 4.5-yard average is low by his standards, that number could be kick-started, as Hamilton allows a league-high six yards per carry. He has also been an effective weapon as a receiver, averaging 10.6 yards on his 25 catches. Montreal is last in the league in rushing yards per game at 68.8, but if Als coach Mike Sherman pulls the trigger and starts Johnny Manziel ($7,000) at quarterback, Sutton will have a chance to benefit from the running threat that his new teammate can be.

Sit: Terrence Toliver, WR, Tiger-Cats, $5,430 Salary

The game breaker missed last week’s loss to Ottawa and is expected back into the lineup. That said, Toliver will have fits and starts as he is just five games removed from coming back from a torn ACL. Brandon Banks ($7,740) and Jalen Saunders ($6,591) each had 100-yard games last week and should feast on a Montreal defence that is last with 299 passing yards allowed per game. Luke Tasker ($6,657) is also slated to return, giving Jeremiah Masoli ($9,014) his three biggest guns in a passing attack that averages 319 yards per outing.

BC (2-3-0) at Calgary (6-0-0)

Saturday | 9:00 p.m. ET

Start: Don Jackson, RB, Stampeders, $5979 Salary

Jackson (lower body injury) was a late scratch for Saturday’s win over Saskatchewan. Assuming he will be healthy enough to go, the league’s third-leading rusher has a plum matchup awaiting him. The Lions are last in rushing yards allowed per game (135) while giving up six yards per carry and eight touchdowns on the ground. The Stamps are third in rushing yards per game (116.5), so if Jackson doesn’t start, either Terry Williams ($4,069) or Romar Morris ($2,500) would get the opportunity to run through BC, with Morris being a huge value play if asked to start.

Sit: Travis Lulay, QB, Lions, $6,105 Salary

BC’s offence has come to life since Lulay replaced Jonathon Jennings ($5,010) as the starting pivot. Lulay has averaged 325.5 yards per game in the air with three touchdowns in his first two starts. Don’t expect the third time to be a charm, though. Calgary’s defence is playing at near-record levels thus far, with their ability to lock down the pass displayed by the 186.2 yards per game they have allowed. The Stamps have allowed only three passing plays of better than 30 yards, which will take away from the Lions’ ability to go up top (11 completions of 30+). In short, this is not the game to bank on Lulay and the BC passing attack.

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