Fantasy Strategy: Can John White provide salary relief?

The Johnny Manziel trade to Montreal this week stole the headlines, but Fantasy players shouldn’t hook up their lineups to the hype train just yet. More proven names lead the projections this week and most of them are Manziel’s opposition rather than his teammates.

All aboard the Week 7 projections breakdown!

QUARTERBACKS

Top Projected

Mike Reilly, EDM – $14,000

Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $9,734

Matt Nichols, WPG – $7,554

Punt Single

Vernon Adams Jr., MTL – $5,000

This is Reilly’s highest projection this season in a year in which he has been projected 30 per cent higher than the rest of the field every week. Montreal has allowed the highest rate of plays per game to opposing offences at 62.8, while the Eskimos have run the third-most plays per game at 59.2 – only 1.6 behind league-leading Ottawa. Reilly is second in the league with nine touchdown passes while the Als have allowed a league-leading 12 which, on a per attempt basis, is nearly double the league average. These two things together mean Reilly will be on the field a lot and has a better than double the league average chance of throwing a touchdown on each attempt. There’s a lot of reasons to roll out Reilly versus the Als.

Masoli, on the other hand, is coming off two disappointing performances versus the Riders but most QBs have been underwhelming versus the Riders and their terrifying defensive line this season. The REDBLACKS allow the third most passing yards per attempt, while Hamilton passes for the second most yards per attempt. This leads to the highest projected yards per pass attempt on the slate at 9.4 yards for Masoli. The TDs still haven’t come yet but with his group of receivers it will turn around at some point.

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The Bombers are primarily known for their dominating rushing attack with Harris and short yardage quarterback Chris Streveler leading the charge but if players are looking to save some salary at QB this week, the matchup with the Argos is a great opportunity for Nichols to make some big plays. The Argos allow the most yards per pass attempt at 9.3 – a full yard and a half over league average – while also allowing the second-highest rate of passing TDs per attempt. The 50 km per hour winds in Toronto last week led to an emphasis on the run game but conditions should be beautiful in Winnipeg on Friday night. Nichols may finally get a chance to shine.

If players want to pay up at RB and WR then there is a total punt option available this week as news broke that Adams will start at QB for the Als on Thursday night. Adams is primarily known for his rushing ability but in three starts in 2016 he threw for four touchdowns as well. Even with Manziel likely to see some playing time, Adams doesn’t have to do much to pay off a $5,000 price tag versus an Eskimos defence allowing the second most yards per pass attempt and third most passing touchdowns per attempt in 2018.

RUNNING BACKS

Andrew Harris, WPG – $10,191

William Powell, OTT – $8,862

C.J. Gable, EDM – $6,378

Punt Single

John White IV, HAM – $3,112

Harris is the Reilly of running backs. Every week Harris tops the projections due to his work as a receiver and usage in the red zone. This week, however, his price has climbed to quarterback-like proportions giving him a great projection, but less than stellar value. Harris is averaging a stellar 6.4 yards per carry and the Argos are a below average rush defence. It’s unlikely he gets 27 carries again this week – nearly double his season average – so it’s wise to temper expectations somewhat if hoping for another 31-Fantasy point outburst.

The Hamilton defence is allowing over 6.5 yards per rush this season but one 80-yard run last week by Marcus Thigpen inflated that number nearly a full yard from the 5.7 it would have been otherwise. It’s still a high number but not even worst in the league. Powell is second in the league in carries and has had an increasing role as a receiver over the past couple weeks, but the Hamilton defence allows the second fewest plays per game to opposing offences so his touches may be fewer that what he’s been used to.

Marcus Thigpen needed just one touch to score an 80-yard touchdown in Week 6 (Geoff Robins/CFL.ca)

Gable has had a disappointing Fantasy season thus far with only one game over 100 yards rushing and only one touchdown to this point. However, as noted earlier, Montreal allows opposing offences to stay on the field a ton and if the game is as lopsided as many believe, Gable may get a lot of opportunities to run in the second half while the Eskimos try to control the clock much as they did versus the Lions in Week 3. The rates don’t look great for Gable, but the volume should be there.

Maybe the best source of salary relief on the slate is White. I was wrong last week when I assumed Hamilton would continue the three-person committee approach to carries. Nikita Whitlock and Mercer Timmis still got some snaps but White received all the carries out of the backfield. His matchup versus Ottawa is only slightly more forgiving than the one with Saskatchewan last week but a $3K salary for a starting RB is always worth considering.

RECEIVER

Duke Williams, EDM – $7,309

Derel Walker, EDM – $7,195

Brandon Banks, HAM – $7,604

Brad Sinopoli, OTT – $6,849

Luke Tasker, HAM – $6,933

Eric Rogers, CGY – $8,101

Terrence Toliver, HAM – $5,640

Marken Michel, CGY – $4,239

Punt Single

Shaq Evans, SSK – $2,500

Chris Harper, MTL – $2,500

Jordan Williams-Lambert, SSK – $2,500

Williams has seen his price nearly triple from the beginning of the season at $2,868, but at $7,309 he still represents nearly the best value at WR on the slate. Through the first three weeks of the season Williams and his teammate Walker were dead even in targets but 27 total targets over the past two weeks makes Williams the most reliable Fantasy option at the position. It’s unlikely he sees 17 targets again this week, but with projections for a more moderate 10 targets, he still has far and away the top projection for any receiver. Edmonton projects for 40 pass attempts this week so Williams’ opportunities to compile yards and scores will be plentiful. Meanwhile, Walker is slowly becoming a somewhat forgotten man in this offence despite his exceptional talents. At some point he’s going to have a breakout week again, but it’s just unlikely to be this week where he’ll likely see a hefty dose of Tommie Campbell across from him.

The Hamilton receiving corps had a rough go of it versus the Riders defence the past two games with Banks essentially being held in check by shadowing Ed Gainey. The Ottawa pass defence is a significantly more appealing matchup though allowing the third most yards per pass attempt in 2018 while also allowing the third most passing TDs. It may be the week the Hamilton offence finally starts to score through the air so Banks and teammates Tasker, Toliver and Saunders are all options.

Brandon Banks is looking to bounce back after a quiet week vs. the Riders’ defence (CFL.ca)

On the other hand, Ottawa’s passing game has given Fantasy players fits over the past three weeks as 2017 Fantasy stars Ellingson and Spencer have disappeared like Thanos snapped his fingers in TD Place Stadium, leaving Sinopoli as the only receiver Trevor Harris can see on the field. It’s unlikely Sinopoli has another game of double-digit targets as he’s had only eight such games in his 82 career games of significant playing time. The matchup is also difficult as Hamilton has allowed the second fewest total passing yards and third fewest passing yards per attempt this season. This, added to having allowed less than one passing touchdown per game, makes it difficult to expect big days from any of the Ottawa receiving corps.

It’s fair to say that the Stampeders offence took its foot off the gas and went into ball control mode in the second half versus the Alouettes. Still, Rogers had another great game with 26.3 Fantasy points. This week’s matchup versus Saskatchewan is significantly more difficult though as they allow the third fewest passing touchdowns per attempt and have forced the most two and outs by opposing offences thus far. Rogers has as much upside as any receiver on the slate but if what Gainey did to Banks’ production over the past two games is any indication, Rogers may have a tough go of it. Michel represents a reasonable mid-tier value at a significantly lower price tag.

If looking to scrape the bottom of the bargain barrel, there’s a number of minimally priced receivers at the $2,500 level. Evans and Williams-Lambert both draw the toughest receiving matchup in the league versus Calgary which makes them risky plays while Harper gets an easier matchup versus Edmonton but is held back by instability at quarterback.

DEFENCE

Stampeders – $6,300

Roughriders – $5,145

Eskimos – $3,552

The top two options at defence face off against each other Saturday evening in Regina in what could be a pretty low-scoring affair. The Vegas over/under line sits at 47 points, which is very low by CFL standards. Calgary leads the league in sacks, turnovers and time of possession while they are second in forced two and outs behind only Saskatchewan. The Riders on the other hand have thrown the most interceptions in the league while being third in the league in offensive two and outs at 30. There’s a lot of good reasons to pay up for the Stamps defence if players can afford it.

At a slight discount, the Riders are a reasonable second option as Bo Levi Mitchell appeared to lack mobility last week versus the Als and the Riders tenacious pass rush could certainly put him on the ground a lot if he is unable to avoid the pressure. They don’t have as much turnover or sack upside as the Stamps, but they also are over $1,100 cheaper.

If players really need a cheap option at defence this week, the Eskimos get to face the struggling Als offence led by a group of quarterbacks which have yet to show any sustained ability to lead a successful offence. Edmonton is third in the league in sacks with 11 while the Als are third in the league in turnovers allowed. There is likely to be a strong emphasis on the run from Montreal but if they get behind early it could be a good night for the Eskimos defence.

STACKS

Reilly > Kenny Stafford, Williams, Walker

With a Reilly stack of either Williams or Walker becomes a near impossibility to fit into lineups given their immense salaries at this point, it may be a week to consider a Reilly/Stafford stack following the injury to Joe Burnett at field side corner last week.

Nichols > Darvin Adams

Adams is clearly Nichols’ favourite target, averaging over eight targets a game in their time together. With the Argos’ propensity to give up big plays through the air, it could be an opportunity to get this lower owned stack.

Gable > Eskimos Defence

As mentioned earlier, it’s been a rough start to 2018 for Gable but a one-sided affair in Week 7 may be his time to shine. Pairing him with the Eskimos defence provides positive correlation for players lineups.

WEEK 7 FANTASY PROJECTIONS

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

RECEIVERS