Fantasy Strategy: Who’s getting air in Week 6?

The difference between a good play and a great play is who scores the touchdowns. Throughout the 2017 season, most teams scored their touchdowns through the air at nearly a 2:1 ratio, while the first five weeks of the 2018 season have shown a shift towards scoring on the ground as the ratio has shifted to nearly 5:4.

However, statistical regression will likely lead to more passing touchdowns.

QUARTERBACK

Top Projected

Bo Levi Mitchell, CGY – $8,027

Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $10,607

James Franklin, TOR – $7,403

With the Eskimos and Mike Reilly on bye this week, the decision at quarterback is no longer between Reilly or the field but rather which of the congested group of QBs to roll with. The decision would be clear if not for a scary looking injury to Mitchell part way through last week’s game vs. Ottawa. Mitchell has a talented corps of receivers to throw to in Kamar Jorden, Eric Rogers and company and they get to face a Montreal defence that has allowed the most total passing touchdowns (10) and the most passing TDs per attempt this season, nearly double the league average. If Mitchell is unable to go, Nick Arbuckle will get the nod at a ridiculously cheap $5,000, albeit with much lower expectations.

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On just about any other week Masoli would be the clear top passer on a slate without Reilly but, as evidenced a couple weeks ago, the Roughriders defence can be dominant when they’re able to get the quarterback off his spot. Masoli is setting records weekly for passing yards but an inordinate number of the Ticats scores are coming on the ground this season (5:4) vs. their 2017 trend which saw them score more through the air (23:17). The Riders defence represents a tough matchup for passing TDs though, allowing well below the league average through the first quarter of the season. Masoli did have a couple near misses on attempts to Terrence Toliver in the end zone in Week 4, and so as the Duron Carter on defence experiment persists, there is significant upside for Masoli.

Franklin has looked at least serviceable through his first two starts this season, and this week he gets an upgrade in matchup over Edmonton. The Bombers allowed the most passing yards in the league in 2017 and lead in that stat thus far in 2018. The number could be even worse given they’ve faced struggling Drew Willy and Jonathon Jennings in two of their five games. Franklin fell just short of the 300-yard mark last week but has a good chance to eclipse that Saturday. As is the case with Masoli, an unsustainable number of Toronto’s TDs have come on the ground so far this season – 5:2 versus 10:30 in 2017 – so at some point statistical regression will likely get Toronto scoring more through the air. The cheap salary also allows players to splurge at other positions.

RUNNING BACK

Top Projected

Andrew Harris, WPG – $9,055

James Wilder Jr., TOR – $8,634

William Powell, OTT – $8,240

Punt Singles

Don Jackson, CGY – $5,697

Brandon Rutley, BC – $4,476

Harris leads the league in rushing yards, touchdowns, and has averaged five targets a game as a receiver. After a slow start in rushing efficiency, he’s back to a solid 6.6 yards per carry as well. The Argos allow about a league average yards per carry at 5.37 but have been stout against the run in terms of scoring, having allowed only one rushing TD this season. The Bombers lead the league with nine rushing scores this season, so this is kind of the case of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Harris projects as the third-highest scorer regardless of position but his salary is tougher to justify in a more difficult matchup than he’s faced in recent weeks.

The second highest projected back is similar to Harris in many facets of his game, but Wilder has yet to pile up rushing yards with nearly the kind of consistency as Harris. Wilder has eclipsed 100 yards on the ground only once this season, versus the generous Eskimos rush defence, and now he must face an improved Bombers rush defence allowing nearly half a yard less per carry than they did in 2017. Much of Wilder’s projection is buoyed on his ability to score TDs and his involvement in the passing game as he averages five targets per game.

Despite the Argos’ scoring woes, James Wilder Jr. remains a top option at running back (Adam Gagnon/CFL.ca)

Powell started 2018 with a bang by averaging 118 yards rushing per game through his first three starts. However, Week 4 brought everything to halt versus the crushing Stampeders defence. For as difficult a week as that was though, his Week 6 matchup versus BC is reason for optimism. The Lions defence has averaged allowing 176 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks and has allowed a league leading 6.3 yards per carry this season. Ottawa’s continued penchant to score touchdowns through the air and Powell’s lack of involvement as a receiver keep his projection lower than other top RBs but he could have an absolute field day on the ground.

If needing to save salary at the position, there are a couple cheaper options worth considering as well. Jackson seems to have laid claim to the majority of the touches in the Stamps backfield and will likely see significant work in a game versus the Alouettes that isn’t expected to be close. While his unsustainable efficiency has slowly come down to more expected levels – 10 yards per carry through two games down to 6.2 through his last two – the opportunity to grind down the clock in a potential blowout to protect an ailing Mitchell gives him significant upside.

The last two backfields (Lions and Roughriders) worth mentioning both have significantly more questions regarding who will get the ball. The injury to Jeremiah Johnson last week means any of three RBs could get the Lions’ share of carries for BC including Chris Rainey, Rutley, or even Johnson himself if he’s able to get back on the field. Projections are for Rainey to keep his usual role in the offence and return game with Rutley getting the starting nod in the backfield. If, however, Rainey gets the full workload he’d become potentially the best play of the week given his big play ability and role in the return game. The starting job won’t be known until the depth chart comes out Thursday.

John White will get his first start for the Ticats this week, but it’s also expected to remain a complicated three-headed Cerberus for Fantasy players. White is cheap, but his opportunities are likely to be limited by Nikita Whitlock and Mercer Timmis. He’s not likely worth the risk.

RECEIVER

Top Projected

Eric Rogers, CGY – $7,415

Kamar Jorden, CGY – $6,508

Brandon Banks, HAM – $8,618

Greg Ellingson, OTT – $6,918

Diontae Spencer, OTT – $6,864

Terrence Toliver, HAM – $5,735

Punt Singles

Noel Thomas II, OTT – $2,500

Shaq Evans, SSK – $2,500

Chris Harper, MTL – $2,500

Ricky Collins Jr., BC – $3,022

Much of the projections for the Calgary receivers are predicated on the return of Mitchell to the lineup this week vs. Montreal. Arbuckle may still be good enough to beat the Alouettes this week but not with near the same kind of Fantasy scoring upside. Rogers returned to practice this week after missing the game vs. the REDBLACKS and comes in as the top projected receiver in the most enticing matchup for opposing passing games in the CFL as the Stamps project for the most passing yards per attempt and passing touchdowns per attempt this week. His teammate, Jorden, would also be a great option versus the Als at a significant discount. The tricky part is that the starting QB for Calgary won’t likely be known until the depth chart comes out on Friday, making them both risky plays.

In their previous matchup versus the Riders, most expected Banks to see a healthy dose of Carter at boundary corner, however, the Riders played the matchup game and shadowed Toliver with Carter most of the night. Expect the Ticats to game plan a few more crossing routes this week to try to exploit Banks’ speed and elusiveness versus Carter. The high price tag makes him a difficult reach. Toliver, on the other hand, is a great value and will likely make the most of his time versus Carter this week having had near misses on long TDs last time around.

Terrence Toliver continues to put up the numbers since his return to the Ticats’ lineup (The Canadian Press)

The high-flying Ottawa duo of Ellingson and Spencer will look to get back on track this week after being absolutely stymied versus Calgary. The Lions defence is much more susceptible to the run than the pass but the big play upside of Ellingson and the special-teams contributions of Spencer keep them both in consideration at WR. The matchup in terms of passing yards and touchdowns allowed is right about league average, so there’s nothing expected to be particularly exploitable here.

There is a significant group of minimally priced receivers available for salary relief this week for players spending up at other positions. Thomas, Evans, Harper, and Collins each can score double digit fantasy points but also have the downside of near zero. Thomas and Collins have the best matchups of the bunch but also are at best the third or fourth option in their respective passing offences. Harper and Evans are each higher on the depth chart for the Alouettes and Riders respectively, but also have a lot of instability to deal with at quarterback.

DEFENCE

Stampeders – $5,580

Tiger Cats – $3,674

It’s hard to imagine using anything other than the Stampeders at defence this week. They lead the league in both yards and touchdowns allowed per attempt while also leading the league in both sacks and forced turnovers. They literally lead the league in every Fantasy worthy statistic and face the seemingly least potent offence in the league in terms of scoring, yardage, sacks allowed, and two and outs. There’s not a bigger lock at any position on the slate.

If Fantasy players really can’t find their way to paying up for the Stampeders defence, the cheaper option that could be worth a look is the Tiger-Cats unit. The Roughriders lead the league in interceptions thrown (7) and are third worst in terms of sacks allowed (9). The current Vegas odds have the Riders as 10.5-point underdogs with an implied team total of only 20 points. The Ticats defence is near the bottom of the league in terms of sacks and forced turnovers, so this play does hold a lot more risk than the Stampeders.

STACKS

Mitchell > Rogers, Jorden

The price is likely too steep to consider a Mitchell/Rogers/Jorden double stack with the expensive salaries at RB, but the Stamps will likely score early and often versus the Alouettes.

Franklin >Wilder Jr., S.J. Green

Franklin comes in at a significant savings compared to other QBs, making this stack quite affordable. At this point it’s helpful to think of Wilder more as a receiver with some bonus rushing attempts than a running back that catches passes. After a slow start, Green started to convert on more of his opportunities in Week 5.

Jackson > Stampeders Defence

If Mitchell is out of the lineup on Saturday, Fantasy players can expect an emphasis on the running game led by Jackson, who may get some short fields to work with given the Stamps likelihood to create sacks and turnovers versus Montreal.

WEEK 6 FANTASY PROJECTIONS

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

RECEIVERS