CFL.ca Photo/Peter McCabe
Accurately determining and projecting a player’s market share in their offence goes a long way to predicting their value. It’s great to know which teams are in the best spots for Fantasy production in a given week, but understanding a player’s market share of their team’s offence lets you know who the most likely candidates are to produce in those spots.
There are some players this week that project well due to a large market share and others due to exceptional efficiency with smaller ones. Fantasy players will have to decide what they value more.
QUARTERBACK
Top Projected
Mike Reilly, EDM – $14,000
Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $9,835
Trevor Harris, OTT – $8,624
Punt Single
James Franklin, TOR – $6,000
On the subject of market share, the Eskimos have scored the second-most touchdowns in the league this season at 11 and Mike Reilly has accounted for 10 of those. The Eskimos are also second in the league averaging 9.6 yards per pass attempt and get to face the league’s most generous pass defence so far in 2018 – Toronto – allowing a whopping 11.1 yards per pass attempt. It’s a tiny sample size, but that projects Reilly for 13.4 yards per attempt this week. He’s expensive, but his market share of touchdowns and ridiculous efficiency make him tough to fade.
Jeremiah Masoli is the only player near Reilly’s area code averaging a league-best 9.9 yards per attempt. The Riders pass defence is right on league average despite the struggles brought on by the DCD experiment (Duron Carter on Defence) and are third in the league in sacks with six, so Masoli’s matchup isn’t as enticing. What really holds his projection down, though, is his market share of TDs, as he has accounted for only five of the Ticats’ nine TDs so far with the emergence of 2018’s first touchdown vulture, Mercer Timmis.
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The other elite level opportunity this week comes from Ottawa’s Trevor Harris. Harris projects lower than Reilly or Masoli nearly every week due to his lack of rushing yards and his lack of goal line carries. Montreal has actually been slightly better than league average in terms of passing yardage allowed, but it has continued to allow a lot of scores through the air (7) which is where Harris will have a chance to excel. In 2017 Ottawa scored their touchdowns through the air versus on the ground at a 2.69:1 rate and that has stayed about the same in 2018 at a 3:1 rate. Harris could certainly lead the slate in passing TDs this week.
If you are looking to punt the position this week, James Franklin is the best-looking option. Franklin has only seen significant playing time in a handful of CFL games, so he’s an uncertain option at a position stocked with proven performers. His 2016 appearance versus Toronto in which he passed for 335 yards and four touchdowns shows his upside, but his 2015 appearance versus Calgary in which he completed only 46 per cent of his passes for 105 yards shows he’s not a sure thing either.
RUNNING BACK
Top Projected
James Wilder, TOR – $6,782
Andrew Harris, WPG – $6,675
CJ Gable, EDM – $6,618
Punt Single
Tre Mason, SSK – $3,000
If Franklin is going to find success vs. an Eskimos defence that is second in the league with eight sacks, the Argos will have to slow that pass rush through the run game and screen passes. This is exactly where Wilder has the chance to excel. He has yet to score this season, but his 5.1 yards per carry average and 12.3 yards per catch average show the Argos’ offensive woes aren’t all his fault. Negative game scripts in which Toronto has played most of the season from behind have limited his market share in the offence. The Eskimos have allowed a league-worst 6.6 yards per carry this season. Mercer Timmis looked like Mike Pringle against them in Week 2, so this may be Wilder’s breakout game for 2018.
Andrew Harris is a versatile player that gets a large market share of his teams’ offensive touches regardless of game script. That being said, his rates of Fantasy points per attempt are the lowest of any of the starting running backs in the CFL so far in 2018. The potential return of Matt Nichols may be a boon for him as Nichols loves to check down to Harris in the flats. The matchup as a rusher and receiver versus BC is nothing to get too excited about, so much of Harris’ value hinges on catching half a dozen passes with a shot at a touchdown.
The return of Matt Nichols could have an impact on the Bombers in Fantasy (The Canadian Press)
Last week I wrote that Gable’s struggles in 2018 were mostly due to playing from behind and negative game scripts that necessitated a pass heavy attack, but that could turn around versus BC. That’s pretty much exactly what happened, as Gable churned out 24.2 fantasy points with 165 rushing yards and a touchdown. Week 4 gives him a matchup with an Argos defence allowing over six yards per carry but having allowed only one rushing touchdown so far this season.
Week 4 doesn’t offer many punt options at RB, and the one that sticks out is part of a three-headed committee in Saskatchewan. Offensive line struggles and uncertainty at quarterback have hampered the Riders’ offence to this point, making it hard to rely on any runner from Regina. However, Mason certainly seemed to have the most success of the Roughriders trio and the largest market share of carries. He doesn’t have to do much to pay off a $3,000 price tag.
WIDE RECEIVER
Top Projected
Greg Ellingson, OTT – $7,419
Diontae Spencer, OTT – $6,925
Brandon Banks, HAM – $8,211
Duke Williams, EDM – $4,956
Derel Walker, EDM – $6,711
Luke Tasker, HAM – $6,268
Kenny Stafford, EDM – $3,937
Brad Sinopoli, OTT – $3,561
Punt Single
Shaq Evans, SSK – $2,500
As mentioned earlier, Ottawa scores most of its touchdowns through the air and faces an Alouettes defence that has allowed a league-leading seven through three games. Trevor Harris has attempted 65 passes this season and Ellingson has an absurd 33 per cent market share of those attempts, which tops the league. His teammate Diontae Spencer projects well, but as the second-most targeted receiver in Ottawa he still only gets 23 per cent of the looks. Both should have ample opportunity to score this week. Spencer’s aptitude as a returner also looks great for his value this week as Montreal allows the second-most yards in the league to opposing punt and kick returners.
The yardage is always there for Hamilton receivers, as they have run the most passing plays in the league in 2018 (106) and ran the highest percentage of passing plays in 2017 (71.4%). The yardage and PPR points should certainly be plentiful for Banks, Tasker, Saunders, and Toliver in Week 4. Banks becomes nearly a must-play if Duron Carter continues to line up at boundary corner for the Green and White as he has allowed long touchdown receptions over 50 yards in consecutive weeks. Banks could have a much bigger day than any mean projection can account for.
Duron Carter starting at corner could open the door for a big day from Brandon Banks (Arthur Ward/CFL.ca)
The dynamic duo of receivers out of Edmonton take up the next two spots in the projections versus the league’s most generous pass defence in 2018. The Tiger-Cats were the most giving pass defence in 2017 and only allowed 8.6 yards per attempt, so at some point the Argos’ inflated 11.1 yards per pass attempt is going to regress towards the mean. It’s unlikely, though, that the Eskimos are the best opponent to hope for positive regression against. Walker and Williams are each averaging over eight targets per game and each has a touchdown reception over 80 yards this season.
The best mid-tier values also come from Edmonton and Ottawa in Kenny Stafford and Brad Sinopoli. Although they lack the ceiling of their more notable teammates, they come at significant discounts to their compatriots in positive game environments. Stafford had his first TD of 2018 last week, while Sinopoli is still looking for his. Both receivers have a good shot finding the end zone in Week 4.
If you need a punt option to fill out a flex or WR2 spot, Shaq Evans has flashed some big play ability at comes in at the minimum $2,500 salary. If he continues to start at boundary WR he should get a half a dozen targets, which makes him a great value play.
DEFENCE
REDBLACKS – $3,309
Tiger-Cats – $3,739
The REDBLACKS’ defence showed the difference that a good coordinator like Noel Thorpe can make as they dissected the Riders’ offence in Week 2 while giving up only 24 points to Calgary in Week 3 which is nothing to be ashamed of. The Alouettes don’t pose nearly that much of a threat in Week 4 with Jeff Mathews under centre. Mathews has a 7:10 TD/INT ratio in seven career starts, so this Ottawa defence that has already forced seven turnovers through two games could be in for a big day. Being one of the cheapest units on the slate just makes them that much more appealing.
Saskatchewan has given up the most turnovers in the league at nine while allowing the third-most sacks with six. The Ticats’ defence is middling in both these categories but should have the opportunity to climb the stats sheet this week with uncertainty at nearly every position in the Riders offence. Bridge and Watford both threw two interceptions in Week 3 and poor blocking on the line has led to a lack of a rushing attack and too many passes having to be thrown under duress. The Hamilton defence looks like another solid play on Thursday night in Regina.
STACKS
Mike Reilly > Duke Williams, Derel Walker, Kenny Stafford
As each of their prices continue to rise, a double stack becomes less and less viable. Reilly/Williams/Walker is already in that category, however stacking Reilly with Williams/Stafford is still a highly correlated route to success. The matchup with Toronto is about as enticing as it gets.
Jeremiah Masoli > Brandon Banks, Luke Tasker, Jalen Saunders, Terrence Toliver
Even with all the passing plays and yardage that get dialed up for Hamilton there are just too many mouths to feed for all four of these receivers to go off each week. As mentioned earlier, Banks is a near must-play if Duron Carter lines up at boundary corner again this week.
Trevor Harris > Greg Ellingson, Diontae Spencer, Brad Sinopoli
Ottawa scores the majority of their touchdowns through the air and the Als allow a lot of that. There’s a good chance that two or three of these receivers score majors this week. The mid-tier price on Sinopoli makes a Harris/Ellingson/Sinopoli double stack intriguing.
William Powell > REDBLACKS Defence
Powell doesn’t get a lot of work in the passing game which keeps his projection lower than other elite options at RB, but there’s a good chance Ottawa gets up big early and leans on Powell to grind out yards down the stretch. With the second-highest average yards per carry among starting running backs this season (6.8), he could be in for a field day.
WEEK 4 PROJECTIONS
QUARTERBACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Pass Attempts | Rush Carries |
| Mike REILLY | QB | $14,000.00 | EDM | TOR | 29.72 | 2.12 | 35.14 | 5.95 |
| Jeremiah MASOLI | QB | $9,835.00 | HAM | SSK | 22.56 | 2.29 | 36.50 | 5.20 |
| Chris STREVELER | QB | $6,983.00 | WPG | BC | 22.48 | 3.22 | 35.44 | 7.50 |
| Trevor HARRIS | QB | $8,624.00 | OTT | MTL | 20.99 | 2.43 | 41.58 | 1.90 |
| James FRANKLIN | QB | $5,935.00 | TOR | EDM | 20.75 | 3.50 | 35.73 | 2.10 |
| Matt NICHOLS | QB | $7,808.00 | WPG | BC | 20.08 | 2.57 | 35.44 | 1.44 |
| Jonathon JENNINGS | QB | $7,843.00 | BC | WPG | 18.52 | 2.36 | 33.59 | 5.70 |
| Jeff MATHEWS | QB | $4,329.00 | MTL | OTT | 10.36 | 2.39 | 31.48 | 3.20 |
| Brandon BRIDGE | QB | $5,341.00 | SSK | HAM | 10.09 | 1.89 | 17.00 | 4.10 |
| David WATFORD | QB | $2,500.00 | SSK | HAM | 7.24 | 2.89 | 17.00 | 4.20 |
RUNNING BACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| James WILDER JR. | RB | $6,782.00 | TOR | EDM | 19.25 | 2.84 | 10.50 | 5.50 | ||
| Andrew HARRIS | RB | $6,675.00 | WPG | BC | 18.92 | 2.83 | 13.10 | 5.80 | ||
| Jeremiah JOHNSON | RB | $5,916.00 | BC | WPG | 17.69 | 2.99 | 11.50 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| C.J. GABLE | RB | $6,618.00 | EDM | TOR | 16.58 | 2.51 | 13.80 | 3.90 | ||
| William POWELL | RB | $8,289.00 | OTT | MTL | 15.16 | 1.83 | 16.10 | 3.10 | ||
| Tyrell SUTTON | RB | $5,699.00 | MTL | OTT | 13.41 | 2.35 | 13.60 | 4.70 | ||
| Chris RAINEY | RB | $6,366.00 | BC | WPG | 12.83 | 2.01 | 2.10 | 2.80 | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Martese JACKSON | RB | $3,683.00 | TOR | EDM | 10.03 | 2.72 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Stefan LOGAN | RB | $3,363.00 | MTL | OTT | 8.89 | 2.64 | 0.80 | 2.60 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Marcus THIGPEN | RB | $4,000.00 | SSK | HAM | 8.40 | 2.10 | 5.10 | 4.70 | ||
| Declan CROSS | RB | $2,713.00 | TOR | EDM | 7.29 | 2.69 | 0.20 | 2.80 | ||
| Jordan ROBINSON | RB | $2,500.00 | EDM | TOR | 6.57 | 2.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Christion JONES | RB | $2,500.00 | SSK | HAM | 6.44 | 2.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Tre MASON | RB | $3,000.00 | SSK | HAM | 6.25 | 2.08 | 7.10 | 2.10 | ||
| Sean THOMAS ERLINGTON | RB | $2,500.00 | HAM | SSK | 5.87 | 2.35 | 6.90 | 1.80 | ||
| Mercer TIMMIS | RB | $3,000.00 | HAM | SSK | 4.39 | 1.46 | 4.20 | 1.30 | ||
| Jerome MESSAM | RB | $3,889.00 | SSK | HAM | 0.88 | 0.23 | 1.10 | 0.30 | ||
| Anthony GOSSELIN | RB | $2,500.00 | OTT | MTL | 0.84 | 0.34 | 1.20 | 1.10 |
RECEIVERS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| Greg ELLINGSON | WR | $7,419.00 | OTT | MTL | 18.90 | 2.55 | 0.00 | 9.10 | ||
| Diontae SPENCER | WR | $6,925.00 | OTT | MTL | 18.38 | 2.65 | 0.16 | 7.10 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Brandon BANKS | WR | $8,211.00 | HAM | SSK | 17.55 | 2.14 | 0.08 | 8.10 | 4.00 | |
| D’haquille WILLIAMS | WR | $4,956.00 | EDM | TOR | 17.24 | 3.48 | 0.00 | 8.30 | ||
| Derel WALKER | WR | $6,711.00 | EDM | TOR | 17.18 | 2.56 | 0.28 | 8.50 | ||
| Luke TASKER | WR | $6,268.00 | HAM | SSK | 14.77 | 2.36 | 0.00 | 7.40 | ||
| Naaman ROOSEVELT | WR | $5,559.00 | SSK | HAM | 13.63 | 2.45 | 0.00 | 7.10 | ||
| Jalen SAUNDERS | WR | $5,407.00 | HAM | SSK | 13.05 | 2.41 | 0.09 | 7.50 | ||
| Weston DRESSLER | WR | $4,671.00 | WPG | BC | 12.99 | 2.78 | 0.80 | 6.80 | ||
| Emmanuel ARCENEAUX | WR | $4,020.00 | BC | WPG | 12.22 | 3.04 | 0.04 | 6.90 | ||
| Kenny STAFFORD | WR | $3,937.00 | EDM | TOR | 12.20 | 3.10 | 0.00 | 6.30 | ||
| Brad SINOPOLI | WR | $3,561.00 | OTT | MTL | 11.93 | 3.35 | 0.00 | 7.30 | ||
| S.J. GREEN | WR | $5,828.00 | TOR | EDM | 11.93 | 2.05 | 0.00 | 8.30 | ||
| Bryan BURNHAM | WR | $5,399.00 | BC | WPG | 11.79 | 2.18 | 0.09 | 7.10 | ||
| Chris WILLIAMS | WR | $4,772.00 | MTL | OTT | 11.68 | 2.45 | 0.16 | 7.30 | ||
| Darvin ADAMS | WR | $5,142.00 | WPG | BC | 11.53 | 2.24 | 0.09 | 5.50 | ||
| Terrence TOLIVER | WR | $5,699.00 | HAM | SSK | 11.37 | 1.99 | 0.00 | 7.10 | ||
| Caleb HOLLEY | WR | $3,260.00 | SSK | HAM | 10.77 | 3.30 | 0.00 | 5.00 | ||
| Armanti EDWARDS | WR | $3,500.00 | TOR | EDM | 10.33 | 2.95 | 0.00 | 6.30 | ||
| Cory WATSON | WR | $2,500.00 | BC | WPG | 10.15 | 4.06 | 0.00 | 4.90 | ||
| B.J. CUNNINGHAM | WR | $4,148.00 | MTL | OTT | 9.55 | 2.30 | 0.23 | 6.30 | ||
| Nic DEMSKI | WR | $2,536.00 | WPG | BC | 9.43 | 3.72 | 0.80 | 5.10 | ||
| Geno LEWIS | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | OTT | 8.10 | 3.24 | 0.10 | 4.20 | ||
| Ernest JACKSON | WR | $3,158.00 | MTL | OTT | 7.93 | 2.51 | 0.12 | 5.30 | ||
| Ricky COLLINS Jr. | WR | $2,914.00 | BC | WPG | 7.83 | 2.69 | 0.00 | 4.50 | ||
| Adarius BOWMAN | WR | $4,506.00 | WPG | BC | 7.52 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 6.10 | ||
| Natey ADJEI | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | TOR | 7.38 | 2.95 | 0.00 | 3.30 | ||
| Jordan WILLIAMS-LAMBERT | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | HAM | 7.38 | 2.95 | 0.00 | 5.10 | ||
| Dominique RHYMES | WR | $2,500.00 | OTT | MTL | 7.13 | 2.85 | 0.00 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shaq EVANS | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | HAM | 6.95 | 2.78 | 0.00 | 5.90 | 0.00 | |
| Joshua STANFORD | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | HAM | 5.76 | 2.31 | 0.00 | 3.90 | ||
| Nate BEHAR | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | TOR | 5.17 | 2.07 | 0.00 | 3.50 | ||
| Drew WOLITARSKY | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | BC | 5.16 | 2.06 | 0.00 | 2.70 | ||
| Mike JONES | WR | $2,500.00 | HAM | SSK | 5.10 | 2.04 | 0.00 | 3.30 | ||
| Jimmy RALPH | WR | $2,500.00 | TOR | EDM | 4.24 | 1.70 | 0.00 | 2.50 | ||
| Rashaun SIMONISE | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | BC | 3.54 | 1.41 | 0.00 | 1.30 | ||
| Austen HARTLEY | WR | $2,500.00 | OTT | MTL | 3.52 | 1.41 | 0.00 | 2.60 | ||
| Noel THOMAS | WR | $2,500.00 | OTT | MTL | 3.18 | 1.27 | 0.00 | 2.30 | ||
| Malcolm WILLIAMS | WR | $2,500.00 | TOR | EDM | 2.58 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 2.20 | ||
| Daniel PETERMANN | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | BC | 1.76 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 1.10 | ||
| George JOHNSON | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | OTT | 1.57 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
