Peter Power/CFL.ca
One of the biggest mistakes players can make in Fantasy football is reacting to results from a small sample size. Whether it’s assuming a player is an instant Hall of Fame candidate or that a veteran player is washed up, little reliable data can be mined from only a couple of games worth of results.
There are options this week on both ends of this spectrum, so let’s dive into the numbers before going all in or giving up on anyone.
QUARTERBACK
Top Projected
Mike Reilly, EDM – $14,000
Jeremiah Masoli, HAM – $9,950
Punt Single
Brandon Bridge, SSK – $6,000
Chris Streveler, WPG – $6,217
Reilly is the top projected QB again this week in his matchup versus the Lions. However, for the first time this season, he may not actually be the best play. His projection looks solid as the Lions were the second-most vulnerable pass defence in 2017, surrendering the third-highest rate of passing yards per attempt at 8.4 and the second-most Fantasy points per pass attempt at 1.21. Week 1 showed slight improvement for the Lions, but that was versus the Alouettes. The Eskimos are a very different test.
The other high projected passer this week comes at a nearly 30 per cent discount in price. Masoli was a darling of the projections coming into 2018 after an excellent finish to his 2017 campaign. The Blue Bombers defence has given up the fewest yards per pass in the league at just 7.07, but a game versus the Als’ struggling offence will help any team’s defensive stats. The Bombers gave up the second-most yards per pass in 2017 (8.49) and the most passing touchdowns per attempt, so Masoli most likely has a great matchup here despite what the small 2018 sample size may show.
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If looking to go cheap at quarterback this week, there are two options for consideration that come in at less than half the price of Reilly. Bridge will start at quarterback for the Roughriders against the Alouettes, while a rookie clone of Reilly, Streveler, will face off against the Ticats. Bridge is a riskier option given the instability in the Riders’ offence with Duron Carter likely to spend the game at defensive back again. Streveler has a much shorter track record, but his ceiling is extremely high given his abilities in both the running and passing game. It’s unlikely he repeats his Week 2 performance of 37.6 Fantasy points, but the Hamilton defence is still a good matchup to pick on until they’ve proven otherwise, as they have allowed 8.83 yards per pass attempt.
RUNNING BACK
Top Projected
Andrew Harris, WPG – $6,392
Jeremiah Johnson, BC – $6,108
Punt Single
Don Jackson, CGY – $3,500
Mercer Timmis, HAM – $3,000
Positive regression was in the cards for running backs in Week 2 as many scored the touchdowns they were denied in Week 1. However, Week 3 shows a significant downturn in enticing projections at the position. There’s only one elite option this week and that’s Harris. The Ticats have allowed the third most yards per carry this season (5.71) which is a good starting point for Harris, but what really drives his value is his versatility as a receiver which keeps him involved in the game plan regardless of game script. The Bombers project for the second most Fantasy points per rushing attempt this week, so Harris is a solid bet.
The other fully priced running back worthy of consideration is primarily a matchup play as Jeremiah Johnson has been a less than consistent Fantasy play over the past season. He draws an Eskimos defence that has struggled to stop the run for over a year. Edmonton allowed the most yards per carry in 2017 (5.89), nearly half a yard worse than their nearest competitor. The beginning of this season has been no better, evidenced by newcomer Timmis, leading to a yards per carry average of 6.6. Add to that a league-high for most touchdowns allowed per rush attempt and there’s reason to believe in Johnson this week despite the inconsistencies. For these reasons, Chris Rainey is also worthy of consideration this week at a similar price.
Despite his inconsistent production, the matchup makes Jeremiah Johnson an option this week (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)
If looking to go cheap at running back, or maybe just looking for a bargain in the RB2 slot, Jackson remains priced exceptionally low. Jackson will not average 10 yards per carry this season. It’s also somewhat uncomfortable that he’s only received 21 carries on the season as that’s a single game workload for some backs. This kind of efficiency isn’t sustainable, so it is a case of buyer beware to some extent. Ottawa represents a more difficult than average matchup for opposing RBs, so this may be the week that regression begins to chew away at Jackson’s value.
The other cheap option of the week is Timmis. The Bombers sit right on league average in terms of rushing yards per carry allowed but represent one of the best opportunities for opposing rushers to score. The Ticats project for the second-most TDs per carry this week, so Timmis has a good chance to return positive value if the game is indeed as high scoring as projected.
RECEIVER
Top Projected
Eric Rogers, CGY – $6,815
Diontae Spencer, OTT – $6,775
Derel Walker, EDM – $6,894
Kamar Jorden, CGY – $5,623
Luke Tasker, HAM – $6,318
Punt Single
Duke Williams, EDM – $3,775
Ricky Collins Jr., BC – $2,842
Kenny Stafford, EDM – $3,508
Drew Wolitarsky, WPG – $2,500
Jordan Williams-Lambert, SSK – $2,500
Shaq Evans, SSK – $2,500
For those who forgot about Rogers during his hiatus from the CFL, he made a stunning return in Week 2, going for 131 yards and two TDs on five receptions. He’s pretty good at football. The REDBLACKS defence allowed a lot of yards through the air last season, leading to the Stampeders projecting for the second highest yards per pass attempt on the slate (8.74). Add to this an implied team total of 32.5 points and there’s a lot of reasons to like Rogers and teammate Kamar Jorden.
Spencer has just as much big-play ability as evidenced last week versus the Riders, but he also has the added value that comes from his work as a returner. The Stampeders secondary presents a more difficult matchup to face, as they were the toughest matchup in the league in terms of passing yards and TDs per attempt last season. This standard has continued into 2018 as they are the only team in the league yet to allow a passing touchdown. Spencer’s upside is like Rogers, but the likelihood of him realizing it is lower.
Walker had a somewhat quiet Week 2 as Duke Williams’ 88-yard touchdown stole the show, but he still managed to have a solid outing with over 17 Fantasy Points. The Lions were quite susceptible to the big play in 2017 and gave up long receptions to Montreal’s Chris Williams in Week 1. Walker, and the rest of the receiving corps, are in a good spot for a bounce back game after a letdown versus Hamilton last Friday. The Eskimos project for the most offensive plays run this week at 60, so the opportunities should be plentiful for Walker to excel.
After a slow Week 2, by his standards, look for a big rebound from Derel Walker this week (Johany Jutras/CFL.ca)
The Bombers have been an enticing Fantasy matchup for opposing receivers for the past couple seasons, and Tasker and the Hamilton receiving corps get their shot this week. Through 2017, the Bombers allowed the second-most yards per pass attempt and the highest rate of touchdowns per pass attempt in the league. The start to this season has looked better through two weeks, but much of that is on the back of last week’s blowout win over Montreal. Hamilton’s receivers are difficult to project on a weekly basis due to the depth they have at the position. It’s impossible for each of Tasker, Brandon Banks, Jalen Saunders and Terrence Toliver to explode every week which keeps their mean projections lower than their actual potentials are. Tasker seems the most consistent option for Masoli, but he does carry a bit more risk than the rest of the elite options.
With the high prices on the top options, it’s good to know there are plenty of cheap options at the position as well. Williams continues to be significantly underpriced for his expanded role in the Eskimos offence, making him a near lock at WR2. He is a standout in the lower price bracket as he has ability to make big plays, but also sees a higher number of targets than similarly-priced receivers, which provides a very high floor to his projection as well. Through two games, he has garnered 18 targets, the same number as Walker at nearly half cost.
Other low-priced considerations are more boom or bust options due to their lower number of targets but Collins, Stafford, Wolitarsky, Williams-Lambert, and Evans don’t have to do too much to return value at this price range. Of the group, Stafford seems to have the most stable offensive role while Wolitarsky seems the most likely candidate for regression as he has received only six targets to this point, of which half have resulted in touchdowns.
DEFENCE
Top Projected
Roughriders – $4,466
Stampeders – $5,031
The Roughriders defence is a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde situation as they looked dominant in Week 1 versus the Argos but were soundly beaten by the REDBLACKS last Thursday. It’s likely that a home matchup versus the Alouettes should lead to a return to positive results. The Als haven’t shown a consistent ability to move the ball or score points through two games while allowing a league-high eight sacks to go with four turnovers. The Riders are a relatively safe play.
As they were in 2017, the Stampeders defence continues to be the class of the league. They lead the league in sacks (6) and turnovers created (5) makes them a formidable Fantasy force. The Ottawa offence has shown the ability to put up points, but that’s no reason to avoid using a talented unit like this.
STACKS
Reilly > Walker, Williams, Kenny Stafford
This group is going to make the list every week, although as I noted earlier the price on Reilly relative to expected production doesn’t likely make this the optimal points per dollar stack option. If going the Reilly route, players are likely better off pairing him with Williams and Stafford to allow room to spend elsewhere.
Bo Levi Mitchell > Rogers
Mitchell’s projection isn’t exciting and his value isn’t enticing, but if Rogers is going to have a big game, it’s likely that Mitchell will as well. Noel Thorpe appears to have improved the REDBLACKS’ pass defence through their first game of the season, but Mitchell will give them a significantly more difficult test.
Streveler > Darvin Adams, Harris
With the inexpensive salary on Streveler, it’s an affordable option to stack him with his top two targets in Adams and Harris. Adams’ likely matchup with Delvin Breaux makes him a little riskier option, but Harris’ involvement in both the running and passing game covers off a lot of the options for touchdowns in this Winnipeg stack.
Bridge > Caleb Holley, Evans, Williams-Lambert
While Naaman Roosevelt appears to be the top receiver in Saskatchewan with Carter on defence, his price tag relative to his usage so far this season makes him a less appealing option. Holley’s Fantasy points per target is second only to Rogers, which makes him an interesting option if he gets an increased workload, while Evans showed he is a receiver worth considering for Fantasy purposes as he garnered six targets in his first start in the CFL.
WEEK 3 PROJECTIONS
QUARTERBACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Pass Attempts | Rush Carries |
| Mike REILLY | QB | $14,000.00 | EDM | BC | 28.81 | 2.06 | 37.20 | 5.95 |
| Jeremiah MASOLI | QB | $9,950.00 | HAM | WPG | 24.35 | 2.45 | 37.35 | 5.50 |
| Brandon BRIDGE | QB | $6,000.00 | SSK | MTL | 23.33 | 3.89 | 36.00 | 4.10 |
| Chris STREVELER | QB | $6,217.00 | WPG | HAM | 21.91 | 3.52 | 35.33 | 7.50 |
| Jonathon JENNINGS | QB | $8,642.00 | BC | EDM | 19.13 | 2.21 | 30.72 | 4.73 |
| Bo Levi MITCHELL | QB | $8,162.00 | CGY | OTT | 19.04 | 2.33 | 32.75 | 0.34 |
| Trevor HARRIS | QB | $9,680.00 | OTT | CGY | 18.46 | 1.91 | 36.55 | 1.92 |
| Drew WILLY | QB | $5,880.00 | MTL | SSK | 10.01 | 1.70 | 32.29 | 2.40 |
RUNNING BACKS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| Andrew HARRIS | RB | $6,392.00 | WPG | HAM | 19.84 | 3.10 | 12.90 | 6.50 | ||
| Jeremiah JOHNSON | RB | $6,108.00 | BC | EDM | 15.87 | 2.60 | 10.10 | 3.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chris RAINEY | RB | $6,647.00 | BC | EDM | 15.33 | 2.31 | 2.60 | 2.90 | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| C.J. GABLE | RB | $6,474.00 | EDM | BC | 14.99 | 2.32 | 13.30 | 4.10 | ||
| William POWELL | RB | $8,333.00 | OTT | CGY | 14.80 | 1.78 | 15.10 | 3.90 | ||
| Tyrell SUTTON | RB | $5,982.00 | MTL | SSK | 11.81 | 1.97 | 11.20 | 4.00 | ||
| Don JACKSON | RB | $3,500.00 | CGY | OTT | 10.63 | 3.04 | 11.80 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Terry WILLIAMS | RB | $4,562.00 | CGY | OTT | 10.19 | 2.23 | 5.80 | 1.30 | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Tre MASON | RB | $3,000.00 | SSK | MTL | 8.95 | 2.98 | 6.70 | 3.90 | ||
| Christion JONES | RB | $2,500.00 | SSK | MTL | 8.02 | 3.21 | 0.00 | 1.30 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Mercer TIMMIS | RB | $3,000.00 | HAM | WPG | 7.62 | 2.54 | 8.20 | 1.30 | ||
| Jerome MESSAM | RB | $3,959.00 | SSK | MTL | 7.60 | 1.92 | 8.20 | 2.20 | ||
| Jordan ROBINSON | RB | $2,500.00 | EDM | BC | 7.16 | 2.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Stefan LOGAN | RB | $3,282.00 | MTL | SSK | 7.14 | 2.17 | 1.10 | 1.80 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Nikita WHITLOCK | RB | $2,500.00 | HAM | WPG | 5.79 | 2.32 | 2.20 | 1.80 |
RECEIVERS
| Name | Postion | Salary | Team | Opp | Projection | Pts/$ | Rush Carries | Receiving Targets | Punt Returns | Kick Returns |
| Eric ROGERS | WR | $6,815.00 | CGY | OTT | 18.59 | 2.73 | 0.00 | 6.80 | ||
| Diontae SPENCER | WR | $6,775.00 | OTT | CGY | 16.90 | 2.49 | 0.18 | 6.70 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Derel WALKER | WR | $6,894.00 | EDM | BC | 16.35 | 2.37 | 0.30 | 8.60 | ||
| Kamar JORDEN | WR | $5,623.00 | CGY | OTT | 15.87 | 2.82 | 0.08 | 7.52 | ||
| Luke TASKER | WR | $6,318.00 | HAM | WPG | 15.84 | 2.51 | 0.00 | 7.90 | ||
| Greg ELLINGSON | WR | $6,854.00 | OTT | CGY | 15.74 | 2.30 | 0.00 | 7.90 | ||
| Naaman ROOSEVELT | WR | $5,162.00 | SSK | MTL | 15.63 | 3.03 | 0.00 | 7.10 | ||
| Bryan BURNHAM | WR | $5,555.00 | BC | EDM | 15.19 | 2.73 | 0.10 | 7.80 | ||
| Darvin ADAMS | WR | $6,266.00 | WPG | HAM | 14.97 | 2.39 | 0.11 | 6.90 | ||
| Brandon BANKS | WR | $7,703.00 | HAM | WPG | 14.93 | 1.94 | 0.09 | 7.10 | 0.00 | |
| Jalen SAUNDERS | WR | $5,011.00 | HAM | WPG | 13.44 | 2.68 | 0.10 | 7.50 | ||
| D’haquille WILLIAMS | WR | $3,775.00 | EDM | BC | 13.22 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 7.10 | ||
| Emmanuel ARCENEAUX | WR | $4,841.00 | BC | EDM | 13.17 | 2.72 | 0.04 | 7.20 | ||
| Terrence TOLIVER | WR | $5,024.00 | HAM | WPG | 12.86 | 2.56 | 0.00 | 6.80 | ||
| Caleb HOLLEY | WR | $3,606.00 | SSK | MTL | 12.27 | 3.40 | 0.00 | 4.90 | ||
| Ricky COLLINS Jr. | WR | $2,842.00 | BC | EDM | 12.20 | 4.29 | 0.00 | 5.90 | ||
| Weston DRESSLER | WR | $4,474.00 | WPG | HAM | 12.18 | 2.72 | 0.30 | 6.30 | ||
| Brad SINOPOLI | WR | $3,561.00 | OTT | CGY | 12.12 | 3.40 | 0.00 | 7.50 | ||
| DaVaris DANIELS | WR | $4,357.00 | CGY | OTT | 11.93 | 2.74 | 0.12 | 5.80 | ||
| Cory WATSON | WR | $2,500.00 | BC | EDM | 11.68 | 4.67 | 0.00 | 4.40 | ||
| Kenny STAFFORD | WR | $3,508.00 | EDM | BC | 11.66 | 3.32 | 0.00 | 6.70 | ||
| Jordan WILLIAMS-LAMBERT | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | MTL | 11.01 | 4.41 | 0.00 | 6.00 | ||
| Chris WILLIAMS | WR | $3,960.00 | MTL | SSK | 10.88 | 2.75 | 0.18 | 7.10 | ||
| Drew WOLITARSKY | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | HAM | 9.63 | 3.85 | 0.00 | 5.10 | ||
| B.J. CUNNINGHAM | WR | $4,129.00 | MTL | SSK | 9.04 | 2.19 | 0.27 | 6.10 | ||
| Shaq EVANS | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | MTL | 8.82 | 3.53 | 0.00 | 5.90 | 0.00 | |
| Geno LEWIS | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | SSK | 8.38 | 3.35 | 0.10 | 4.30 | ||
| Reggie BEGELTON | WR | $2,500.00 | CGY | OTT | 8.38 | 3.35 | 0.00 | 4.10 | ||
| Ernest JACKSON | WR | $3,221.00 | MTL | SSK | 7.93 | 2.46 | 0.13 | 5.50 | ||
| Adarius BOWMAN | WR | $4,590.00 | WPG | HAM | 7.80 | 1.70 | 0.00 | 5.60 | ||
| Nic DEMSKI | WR | $2,500.00 | WPG | HAM | 7.03 | 2.81 | 0.30 | 3.80 | ||
| Dominique RHYMES | WR | $2,500.00 | OTT | CGY | 6.76 | 2.70 | 0.00 | 4.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noel THOMAS | WR | $2,500.00 | OTT | CGY | 6.42 | 2.57 | 0.00 | 4.50 | ||
| Joshua STANFORD | WR | $2,500.00 | SSK | MTL | 6.21 | 2.48 | 0.00 | 3.40 | ||
| Mike JONES | WR | $2,500.00 | HAM | WPG | 5.95 | 2.38 | 0.00 | 3.90 | ||
| Miles SHULER | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | BC | 5.85 | 2.34 | 0.00 | 3.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Natey ADJEI | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | BC | 5.76 | 2.31 | 0.00 | 3.50 | ||
| Richard SINDANI | WR | $2,500.00 | CGY | OTT | 5.67 | 2.27 | 0.00 | 3.20 | ||
| Juwan BRESCACIN | WR | $2,500.00 | CGY | OTT | 5.23 | 2.09 | 0.00 | 2.70 | ||
| George JOHNSON | WR | $2,500.00 | MTL | SSK | 5.13 | 2.05 | 0.00 | 3.30 | ||
| Nate BEHAR | WR | $2,500.00 | EDM | BC | 2.76 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 1.90 |
