Matt Smith/CFL.ca
TORONTO — The rest of the league took notice when the Saskatchewan Roughriders went on the road and set aside the Calgary Stampeders, 30-7. Apparently so did the computers.
After their one-sided upset win, the Riders have become second only to Calgary in Grey Cup odds, improving from a 3.10 per cent chance to 19.08 per cent odds of winning the big game.
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It’s no secret that the Riders are a team on the rise in their second season under Chris Jones. But while they’ve emerged as one of the league’s hottest teams, out-scoring the opposition 460-390 this season — the second-best differential in the CFL — their prospective path to the Grey Cup will not be an easy one.
Saskatchewan cannot host a playoff game this year, with the Western Final going through Calgary and the semi going through either Winnipeg or Edmonton. There’s also the possibility the Riders will have to travel east as the crossover team to take on Toronto or Ottawa.
Regardless of the path, CFL Simulation loves the Riders — more so than the second-place Bombers along with whichever team ends up winning the East.
With all six playoff spots accounted for and three teams eliminated, the focus turns to the Grey Cup:
Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
Odds to Make Playoffs |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 100% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 100% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 100% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 100% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 100% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 100% |
| BC Lions | NULL |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | NULL |
| Montreal Alouettes | NULL |
Odds to Win East |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 58.92% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 41.08% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | NULL |
| Montreal Alouettes | NULL |
Odds to Win West |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 100% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | NULL |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | NULL |
| Edmonton Eskimos | NULL |
| BC Lions | NULL |
Odds to Appear in 105th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 68.58% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 47.07% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 40.46% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 26.03% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 12.98% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 4.88% |
| BC Lions | NULL |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | NULL |
| Montreal Alouettes | NULL |
Odds to Win 105th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 45.48% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 19.08% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 16.00% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 10.44% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 7.55% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 1.45% |
| BC Lions | NULL |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | NULL |
| Montreal Alouettes | NULL |
Most Likely 105th Grey Cup Matchups |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary-Ottawa | 31.73% |
| Calgary-Toronto | 27.70% |
| Saskatchewan-Ottawa | 9.06% |
| Saskatchewan-Toronto | 7.07% |
| Calgary-Saskatchewan | 6.88% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the West Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
