The Canadian Press
TORONTO — Five years after playing for the 100th Grey Cup, the Calgary Stampeders and Toronto Argonauts appear to be on a collision course yet again.
CFL Simulation has crunched the numbers after a week of movement across the league, and with victories by Toronto and Calgary combined with losses by Hamilton and Ottawa, the odds of a Toronto-Calgary Grey Cup have improved to 54.87 per cent.
Should that matchup come to fruition, the outlook of the big game might resemble that of 2012. That year, the 9-9 Argos upset the heavily-favoured 12-6 Stampeders.
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Suffice to say, an even greater upset will be required in November for anyone to take down the league-leading Calgary Stampeders. The Stampeders have won 10 straight games, outscoring opponents by an average of 20.5 points per game. While they’ve already clinched a home playoff game, their odds of winning the Grey Cup are 75.69 per cent.
While the Argos and Stamps continue their upward trend, that’s not all.
We dive head first into the numbers below:
Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
Odds to Make Playoffs |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 100% |
| Blue Bombers | > 99.99% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 99.95% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 96.99% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 91.16% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 70.79% |
| BC Lions | 32.22% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 8.66% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.23% |
Odds to Win East |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Toronto Argonauts | 93.42% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 6.10% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.48% |
| Montreal Alouettes | < 0.01% |
Odds to Win West |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 96.53% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 3.47% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | NULL |
| Edmonton Eskimos | NULL |
| BC Lions | NULL |
Odds to Appear in 105th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 82.70% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 66.33% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 22.14% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 11.85% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 7.16% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 3.78% |
| BC Lions | 2.27% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.84% |
| Montreal Alouettes | < 0.01% |
Odds to Win 105th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 75.69% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 11.85% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 6.99% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 2.78% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 2.09% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.31% |
| BC Lions | 0.24% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.05% |
| Montreal Alouettes | < 0.01% |
Most Likely 105th Grey Cup Matchups |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary-Toronto | 54.87% |
| Calgary-Ottawa | 18.32% |
| Winnipeg-Toronto | 9.68% |
| Calgary-Saskatchewan | 4.05% |
| Winnipeg-Ottawa | 3.31% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the West Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
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