September 14, 2017

The Great Debate: Are the Ticats preying on a playoff spot?

David Chidley/CFL.ca

TORONTO — It’s amazing to think that after losing their first eight games, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats have clawed their way back into contention in the CFL East Division.

Detractors, of course, will be sure to point out the a struggling East Division, along with the fact that the Ticats’ two-game winning streak has come by a combined six points. Yet something on this Hamilton team has changed over the past two weeks since June Jones and Jeremiah Masoli took the reins.

Over their previous two games, the Ticats have run the ball better, turned the ball over less and taken fewer penalties. That’s helped them scratch out a pair of much-needed victories in late-game situations against the two best teams in the East:

 

With last weekend’s win over Ottawa, the Ticats’ playoff odds increased from 0.19 per cent to 11.5 per cent according to the weekly CFL Simulation. And while the mountain to climb may look daunting, that 26-22 victory moved the Black and Gold to within four points of a playoff spot (with one game in hand) and five points of the division lead (with two games in hand).

If Jones’ offence can continue to succeed on the ground and create big plays with Brandon Banks through the air, the Ticats have the most favourable schedule down the stretch to make a legitimate run at a top-two position in the East.

Consider the remaining schedule for each team in the East and suddenly the debate becomes very interesting:

RANK TEAM POINTS RECORD VS. EAST GAMES REMAINING VS. EAST AT HOME POSSIBLE POINTS
1 REDBLACKS 9 2-3 6 2 2 21
2 Argonauts 8 4-2 7 2 4 22
3 Alouettes 6 1-3 7 4 3 20
4 Tiger-Cats 4 2-2 8 4 4 20

 

The REDBLACKS have the edge going in, but have a difficult schedule with four of their remaining six games on the road and four games against tougher West Division competition. They’ll also have to do it without Trevor Harris (shoulder) for at least the next couple of weeks.

While the Argos will enjoy more home dates (they’re 3-2 at BMO Field this season), many of those matchups will also be against West Division opponents. Marc Trestman’s club is 0-5 against the West in 2017, something that will have to change if it wants to play post-season football.

In Montreal, the Als may see a spark after dismissing their coach, Jacques Chapdelaine. For Montreal, a win against the REDBLACKS on Sunday afternoon would drastically alter the East Division landscape.

Then there’s Hamilton. With the most remaining games (8), half of them coming at home and half of them coming in head-to-head matchups with the East, the Ticats have an opportunity to make up a lot of ground quickly on the rest of the division.

In the big picture, it definitely takes an optimist to see the Ticats battling back from an 0-8 start to a playoff spot. Yet with their recent run, it’s become a legitimate point of discussion.

With that, we ask: Will the Ticats make the playoffs in 2017?

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