The Canadian Press
TORONTO — With Mark’s Labour Day Weekend come and gone, playoff races are officially under close watch heading into Week 12 of the CFL season.
With that, CFL Simulation is back for another year to track playoff and Grey Cup odds the rest of the way — and some of the early results may come as a surprise.
Not shocking to anyone is that the Calgary Stampeders are a lock to make the post-season and a heavy favourite to win the Grey Cup this November. Surprising, however, might be the second-heaviest favourite to win the big game, the surging Saskatchewan Roughriders.
With the possibility of them either finishing second in the West or, alternatively, crossing over to play in the East, the Riders appear in three of the five most likely Grey Cup matchups this season.
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Of course, fans hoping for more Stampeders-REDBLACKS fireworks have something to cross their fingers for, too. A Calgary-Ottawa Grey Cup rematch is the likeliest scenario of anything, coming in with a 53.04 per cent chance of occurring.
We break it all down below, and remember — it’s only a simulation. The Grey Cup isn’t won on paper, nor is it handed out in September.
Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
Odds to Make Playoffs |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | > 99.99% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 98.58% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 94.05% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 92.01% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 89.69% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 59.69% |
| BC Lions | 56.57% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 9.22% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.19% |
Odds to Win East |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 74.09% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 23.30% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.59% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 0.02% |
Odds to Win West |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 95.02% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 3.08% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 1.60% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.27% |
| BC Lions | 0.03% |
Odds to Appear in 105th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 77.90% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 68.17% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 24.00% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 18.57% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 4.74% |
| BC Lions | 4.03% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 2.02% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.57% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | < 0.01% |
Odds to Win 105th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 64.41% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | 17.11% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 13.77% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 1.82% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 1.66% |
| BC Lions | 0.87% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.33% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.03% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | < 0.01% |
Most Likely 105th Grey Cup Matchups |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary-Ottawa | 53.04% |
| Calgary-Toronto | 14.37% |
| Saskatchewan-Ottawa | 12.71% |
| Calgary-Saskatchewan | 4.88% |
| Saskatchewan-Toronto | 3.91% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
