Weekly Predictor: Ticats, Bombers out for vengeance in Week 5

Week 5 is the week of rematches in the CFL with showdowns featuring all four teams that were in last year’s Easter and Western Semi-Final. The Bombers will be out for revenge against the Lions while the Ticats are in tough against an Esks squad that eliminated them after crossing over to the East. Will either team get vengeance?  Jamie Nye doesn’t think so.

CFL Pick ‘Em is back in 2017 with more than $130,000 in combined cash and prizes are up for grabs*. Pick 30 in a row, win $30,000; pick 40, win $40,000; think you can pick 50 straight? You’re looking at $50,000. *View rules regarding streaks and prizing.

Here’s Nye with his picks for Week 5.

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MONTREAL @ OTTAWA
Wednesday | 7:30 P.M. ET

Can Durant lead the Als to back-to-back wins after an impressive victory over the Stamps last week? (The Canadian Press)

The Montreal Alouettes defence was able to hold off the high flying Stampeders offence for an impressive win last week. Now they’ll try again against Trevor Harris and the Ottawa REDBLACKS.

You would have to think Ottawa is primed for a victory with three straight losses of four points or less. They are also getting into a situation where picking up a win is starting to become urgent.

When you run the numbers, you see this has the makings of another close finish.

PICK: MONTREAL (10% confident)

EDMONTON @ HAMILTON
Thursday | 7:30 P.M. ET

The Ticats are looking to turn thing around against the Esks after an 0-3 start (Mark Taylor/The Canadian Press)

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are dead last in four key categories (points scored per game, points allowed per game, yards per game, and yards given up per game). Edmonton isn’t much better in a few of those but they have shown to be the better team this season.

Edmonton’s offence doesn’t turn over the ball this season and Mike Reilly is at the top of the new QUAR quarterback ranking system among starting quarterbacks.

Yes, I’m going with Edmonton.

PICK: EDMONTON (75% confident)

WINNIPEG @ BC
Friday | 10:00 P.M. ET

Lulay posted a career high 436 passing yards last week while also breaking a CFL record for most passing yards off the bench (Dave Chidley/CFL.ca)

The last time the Bombers traveled to BC Place it was a heck of a show in the West Semi-Final in 2016. The Bombers will be looking for revenge, while Travis Lulay will hope for an encore performance after his career best day last week filling in for an injured Jonathon Jennings.

Matt Nichols has not been fantastic to start the season but the Bombers defence has been the real sore spot for Winnipeg. Defence just so happens to be the strength of this Lions team to start the 2017 season.

I see Lulay going back-to-back with decent performances.

PICK: BC (50% confident)

SASKATCHEWAN @ CALGARY
Saturday | 9:00 P.M. ET

Kamar Jorden and the Stamps boast a league leading 32 points per game average heading into Week 5 (Geoff Robins/CFL)

The Saskatchewan Roughriders certainly impressed the home crowd with their first win in the new season. Was it a factor of taking on the worst team in the league? We will soon find out as they make the tough trek to Calgary.

The Stampeders are fresh off a disappointing loss to Montreal. These are two of the top offences to start the season, with two defences that are pretty even. Last year, the confidence of this pick would have been in the 90s for Calgary, if not 100.

Not so this season.

PICK: CALGARY (20% confident)

OTTAWA @ TORONTO
Monday | 7:30 P.M. ET

The Argos edged the REDBLACKS 26-25 during their first meeting of the season back in Week 3 (Patrick Doyle/The Canadian Press)

Everyone will have the luxury of seeing how the REDBLACKS play on Wednesday before making this pick. I do not.

Maybe more importantly, you will see how healthy Ottawa comes out of their game against Montreal.

All I know is Ricky Ray is playing some extremely good football, while the Toronto defence hasn’t been that bad either. Marc Trestman has extra time to prepare and he’ll have the Argonauts more than ready for Monday’s game.

PICK: TORONTO (25% confident)

DRAFTKINGS: NYE PICKS HIS ROSTER

With the CFL continuing its partnership with DraftKings for a second season, fans can experience the excitement of daily fantasy and test their skills without the need to make a season-long commitment.

Each week throughout the upcoming 2017 season, fans will have the opportunity to set their ultimate CFL fantasy team. DraftKings offers free-to-play contests, the ability to play privately with friends or with other fans globally to win prizes, tickets and exclusive VIP CFL experiences.

DraftKings Week 5 lineup

NOTE: DraftKings is not including Wednesday’s game between Ottawa and Montreal because Ottawa plays twice this week and will include Monday’s game vs. Toronto for stats. That means Montreal players are not included this week.

How can you not play Travis Lulay after his career best performance? Well, when Mike Reilly of the Eskimos is up against the worst passing defence in the CFL… that’s how!

The Tiger-Cats have given up more than 400 yards passing per game this season, so I’m not going to miss out on Mike Reilly finding his groove after having just one 300-yard passing game so far this season despite doing so on almost a weekly basis last year.

I’m also going to count on Brandon Zylstra to continue his strong play with only four incompletions on 25 targets this season. That’s as a reliable target as Reilly is going to find against Hamilton.

Staying with the receivers, Khalil Paden picked up nine targets with DeVier Posey out of the lineup and I don’t think Ricky Ray was disappointed in the former REDBLACKS receiver. Armanti Edwards and S.J. Green are great plays as well this week. Remember that this will be the fourth game in 16 days for Ottawa, so maybe the run game in Toronto could pick up to wear them down even more. But the aerial attack has been just too good for Toronto to ignore in a favourable matchup.

Ottawa’s tough schedule is also why I’m riding the Argonauts’ defence in Week 5 as they rank high in the key categories like takeaways, sacks and points allowed.

That brings us to BC. Quantity is what brings me to Jeremiah Johnson and Bryan Burnham. Johnson gets the ball in so many different ways and has scored a touchdown in every game this season. Why not ride with the hot hand?

Burnham meanwhile had an off week last week, despite his fantastic touchdown catch. His target totals this season were 8, 12, 8 and 4. A drop off last week with Lulay at quarterback. Nick Moore was the man who benefitted but I’m going to say Burnham has a bounce back week with more targets, more yards and another score as the Bombers’ secondary gives up yards.

That brings us to Cameron Marshall. The balanced attack worked last week for the Riders in their first win and Marshall seems to have a game breaking play in him with runs of 20-plus yards in two of three games this season. The Stampeders’ run defence has been suspect so I’m going to go with a hunch that Marshall scores his first touchdown of the season this week.