Johany Jutras/CFL.ca
TORONTO — It’s the final week of the CFL’s regular season and with the Ottawa REDBLACKS clinching first place in the East for the second year in a row, they’ve improved their chances of both appearing in and winning the Grey Cup.
According to CFL Simulation, the REDBLACKS have a 65.93% chance of appearing in the final showdown in November, increasing from 30.73% last week. They also boast a 16.62% chance of winning the trophy, up from Week 19.
With Jonathon Jennings and his Lions defeating the Riders last week, their chances of appearing in the 104th Grey Cup jumped from 8.20% to 21.92%. Their probability of winning the championship? Up from 5.34% to 15.82%.
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Ottawa and Calgary are the most likely duo to battle it out at BMO Field at the end of November at 47.75% (up from 25.63% last week). This week, the probability of an all-Alberta final dropped to 10.62% from 28.51%.
Remember, this is only a simulation. There’s a reason they play – games aren’t won on paper.
Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
East Division |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | Clinched first place |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | N/A |
| Montreal Alouettes | N/A |
| Toronto Argonauts | N/A |
West Division |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | Clinched first place |
| BC Lions | N/A |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | N/A |
| Edmonton Eskimos | N/A |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | N/A |
Probabilities of Appearing in the 104th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 74.53% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 65.93% |
| BC Lions | 21.92% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 17.54% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 16.21% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 3.88% |
| Montreal Alouettes | Eliminated from playoff contention |
| Toronto Argonauts | Eliminated from playoff contention |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | Eliminated from playoff contention |
Probabilities of Winning the 104th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 55.05% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 16.62% |
| BC Lions | 15.82% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 7.61% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 3.63% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 1.27% |
| Montreal Alouettes | Eliminated from playoff contention |
| Toronto Argonauts | Eliminated from playoff contention |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | Eliminated from playoff contention |
Most Likely 104th Grey Cup Matchups |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Ottawa-Calgary | 47.75% |
| Ottawa-BC | 14.11% |
| Hamilton-Calgary | 11.83% |
| Edmonton-Calgary | 10.62% |
| Edmonton-BC | 3.15% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
