The Canadian Press
TORONTO — Can the Hamilton Tiger-Cats make their third Grey Cup appearance in four years? According to CFL Simulation, the answer is yes.
This week, the simulator has the Ticats with a 34.35% chance of making it to the final showdown – the highest of any East Division team. That’s up from their probability last week, which sat at 24.81%.
A Hamilton vs. Calgary Grey Cup final is the most likely matchup come November at 30.42%. The Stampeders, who have clinched the top spot in the West with a win over Toronto last week, are the most likely team of making it to the final at 88.55%. It’s interesting to note that their chances of going all the way dropped from last week (89.49%).
After their victory over the Alouettes last week, the Eskimos’ chances of winning their second straight Grey Cup increased from 5.89% to 10.97% (the second most likely team to walk away with the trophy).
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The Calgary Stampeders are still the most likely team to win the Grey Cup in November (The Canadian Press)
The second most likely matchup we could see for the Grey Cup is Ottawa taking on the Stampeders at 26.62% after sitting at 42.01% last week (the most likely matchup). A Battle of Alberta in the final may be in our future, with the Edmonton Eskimos and Calgary Stampeders sitting at a 22.75% chance of meeting in the final battle if the crossover was to come into play.
A BC vs. Calgary matchup is also a possibility, with the simulator predicting a 2.68% chance of the all-West final.
Remember, this is only a simulation. There’s a reason they play – games aren’t won on paper.
Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
East Division |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 51.10% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 48.86% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.04% |
| Toronto Argonauts | Less than 1 in 10,000 |
West Division |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | Clinched first place |
| BC Lions | N/A |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | N/A |
| Edmonton Eskimos | N/A |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | N/A |
Probabilities of Appearing in the 104th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 88.55% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 34.35% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 30.35% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 29.51% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 9.49% |
| BC Lions | 7.47% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.25% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 0.03% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | Eliminated from playoff contention |
Probabilities of Winning the 104th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 77.26% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 10.97% |
| BC Lions | 3.30% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 3.02% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 2.89% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 2.53% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.03% |
| Toronto Argonauts | Less than 1 in 10,000 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | Eliminated from playoff contention |
Most Likely 104th Grey Cup Matchups |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Hamilton-Calgary | 30.42% |
| Ottawa-Calgary | 26.62% |
| Edmonton-Calgary | 22.75% |
| Winnipeg-Calgary | 5.87% |
| BC-Calgary | 2.68% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
