CFL Simulation: Ottawa to make second straight Grey Cup appearance?

TORONTO — There may be a déjà vu of the 103rd Grey Cup to cap off this season – well, sort of.

According to CFL Simulation, the most probable final showdown is featuring the REDBLACKS – who made a Grey Cup appearance last year – taking on the Calgary Stampeders at 42.01%. The Ottawa REDBLACKS are the second most likely team to make it to the 104th Grey Cup (47.19%), and the most likely team from the East Division.

Last week, the most likely matchup was the Tiger-Cats meeting with the Stamps at 38.32%. But after Hamilton has lost three of their last five contests, the chances of seeing a 102nd Grey Cup rematch dropped to 22.26%.

After their dominating win over Ottawa in Week 15, the simulator has improved the Lions’ chances of finishing first in the West from 0.01% to 0.08%, meaning there is still a chance for them to take over the top spot from Calgary.

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After their Week 15 performance, the Eskimos are now the second most likely team to win the Grey Cup (The Canadian Press)

The Eskimos are now the second most likely team to win the Grey Cup. Even though Edmonton sits on the outside looking in in the playoff picture in the West, they have the chance to still make it to the playoffs with the crossover threat. The reigning Grey Cup Champions’ chances of winning the final trophy improved from 2.05% to 5.89% this week.

A Battle of Alberta is still very much a possibility come November. Last week, the simulator said that a Calgary and Edmonton matchup was 8.78% possible. This week the chances of a provincial rival final showdown improved to 18.53%.

Remember, this is only a simulation. There’s a reason they play – games aren’t won on paper.

Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

The model considers the following:

•             Each team’s current win-loss record.
•             Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
•             Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
•             Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
•             Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule.  The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins.  For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.