The Canadian Press
TORONTO — We’ve passed the half way point of the season and CFL Simulation is here to provide a glimpse of what may happen over the course of the season’s second half.
It still looks like the most likely matchup for the 104th Grey Cup Championship (78.71%) would be the Hamilton Tiger-Cats taking on the Calgary Stampeders.
And just like déjà vu of the 102nd Grey Cup, the Simulator has Calgary (67.91%) heavily favoured to win against Hamilton (23.61%). Both clubs have talented quarterbacks in Bo Levi Mitchell and Zach Collaros and both have receiving corps that can take on even the best defences. With lethal offences that both the Stamps and Ticats are sporting, it’s anyone’s guess who would really come out on top.
After their Week 11 victory, the Ottawa REDBLACKS have emerged in the East and have a 3.29 per cent chance of finishing at the top of the East Division. Ottawa’s chances of appearing in the Grey Cup has also increased to 5.89 per cent. With Trevor Harris back at the helm of Ottawa’s offence, it only seems fitting that the REDBLACKS’ chances of making their second-straight Grey Cup appearance go up.
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Jonathon Jennings is leading his team to a 4.91% chance of appearing in the 104th Grey Cup (CFL.ca)
With their two straight wins on the road, the BC Lions’ chances of finishing first in the West Division rose to 2.34 per cent, ahead of the streaking Blue Bombers and the reigning Grey Cup Champion Eskimos. Jonathon Jennings and co. also hold a 4.91 per cent chance of appearing the 104th Grey Cup.
Remember, this is only a simulation. There’s a reason they play – games aren’t won on paper.
Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
East Division |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 96.55% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 3.29% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 0.13% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.03% |
West Division |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 96.45% |
| BC Lions | 2.34% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 1.21% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | Less than 1 in 10,000 |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | Less than 1 in 10,000 |
Probabilities of Appearing in the 104th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 91.39% |
| Calgary Stampeders | 86.03% |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 8.94 |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 5.89% |
| BC Lions | 4.91% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 1.74% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.98% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.12% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | Less than 1 in 10,000 |
Probabilities of Winning the 104th Grey Cup |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Calgary Stampeders | 67.91% |
| Hamilton Tiger-Cats | 23.61 |
| Winnipeg Blue Bombers | 5.23% |
| BC Lions | 2.64% |
| Ottawa REDBLACKS | 0.38% |
| Toronto Argonauts | 0.11% |
| Montreal Alouettes | 0.07% |
| Edmonton Eskimos | 0.05% |
| Saskatchewan Roughriders | Less than 1 in 10,000 |
Most Likely 104th Grey Cup Matchups (Assuming no crossover) |
|
| Team | Projection |
| Hamilton-Calgary | 78.71% |
| Hamilton-Winnipeg | 8.19% |
| Ottawa-Calgary | 4.98% |
| Hamilton-BC | 4.39% |
| Toronto-Calgary | 1.49% |
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record.
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
• Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
